Summit League Red Line Upset Possibilities In 2010-11

At the mid-major level of college basketball, there are many factors that go into constructing a non-conference schedule. The topic itself is far too detailed for a single post here, so let's just look at a specific area: those games against major conference schools. These major programs need games, primarily those which can be played at home, and the simplest way to achieve this is by "paying" mid-majors to visit them. Such matches are often called guarantee games because the big school pays the little school for what amounts to a guaranteed win. Some mid-major programs attempt to avoid these games for various reasons, while others flock to the opportunity so they can collect a big payday to help support any number of expenses incurred throughout the season. After all, the loss probably wouldn't amount to much for the little school because most schools at this level rely solely on the conference games to get into the post-season.

On the other hand, if David plays Goliath and wins, the loss is considered a big deal for Goliath. When this happens - using the parlance of mid-majordom's wisest voice - we call it a Red Line Upset. In the 2009-10 season, such upsets occurred in 157 of 909 games played for a resulting Red Line percentage of 17.3%. For those wondering, the Red Line is based on money, separating those conferences with large coffers from those often working with the bare bones. It includes the typical power-six leagues as well as the Mountain West (and up until 10-11, Conference USA). The Summit League hasn't done much in the way of contributing to a higher Red Line win percentage in recent years, though Oral Roberts did have a number of upsets during the 2009-10 season. Oakland has been shutout by schools above the Red Line in the last year, with its last win coming against Oregon in the beginning of the 2008-09 season.

With the dawn of a new season, there exists a number of opportunities for teams from The Summit League to increase their role in upping the upset percentages. For those interested in following along, we've put together this list which presents all of the games where teams from this league will face those above the Red Line:

November 12 Centenary @ Memphis North Dakota State @ Oregon Oakland @ West Virginia November 14 South Dakota State @ Iowa November 18 Western Illinois @ Missouri November 20 IPFW @ Cincinnati Western Illinois @ Wyoming November 21 IUPUI vs. San Diego State (neutral court) Oakland @ Purdue November 24 Centenary @ LSU North Dakota State @ Minnesota November 27 Oral Roberts @ Utah November 30 Oral Roberts @ Texas Tech December 8 Oakland @ Illinois December 9 IUPUI @ Ohio State

December 11 Oakland vs. Michigan State (neutral court) Oral Roberts @ Oklahoma December 14 Oakland @ Tennessee December 16 Oral Roberts @ Missouri December 18 Centenary @ Marquette Oakland @ Michigan Southern Utah @ UNLV December 20 Centenary @ Wyoming December 21 IPFW @ Purdue Oral Roberts vs. Miami (neutral court) December 23 UMKC @ Kansas State Oakland @ Ohio State South Dakota State @ Minnesota January 5 UMKC @ Kansas

Total Opportunities (29): Centenary (4), IPFW (2), IUPUI (2), UMKC (2), NDSU (2), Oakland (7), Oral Roberts (5), SDSU (2), SUU (1), WIU (2)

In total, The Summit League will have 29 chances to pull a Red Line upset. Out of this total, 26 will be played on the road where winning will be incredibly difficult. Oral Roberts and IUPUI each have games against a team above the Red Line at multiple-team events on neutral courts. Oakland gets Michigan State at The Palace of Auburn Hills, which counts as a home game for the Golden Grizzlies despite the fact that MSU alumni and fans will far outnumber those of OU.

After UMKC's game with Kansas on January 5, we will revisit this list to see how the conference fared against teams above the Red Line. In the meantime, how many of these games do you see The Summit League winning? Which game intrigues you most as a potential Red Line upset?