Expectations: Odds And Ends

Whenever a new season is birthed, a certain range of expectations come with it. Coaches, players, administrators, media, and fans all have expectations, hopes, wishes. Throughout the week the Gameplan has laid out some of these for 2010-11, ranging from team leadership to fan participation. This feature concludes today by looking into other expectations for the new season. As always, keep in mind these are just from the perspective of one Golden Grizzly fan and others are certainly encouraged to share their own!

Look Good On TV

As has been the case lately, Oakland will have three home games televised on Fox Sports Detroit. One of the games is against Michigan State at the Palace, which should be well attended. The games we're most concerned with are the home games against IUPUI and IPFW. Both games will air live on FSD, presumably with the venerable Mario Impemba on the call. Even though the game is on television, it is absolutely essential that the game be well attended. The worst thing is to get a game on TV and have no one in the stands. My view of these games is that they should be a showcase for all the folks who are on the edge of actually coming out to a game at the O'Rena. If the stands are packed and that person sees the energy of the crowd on their TV screen, there is a better chance that they'll be inclined to check it out in person next time.

Paint The Palace Black And Gold

One of the aforementioned TV games is against the overlord of Michigan college basketball, the Michigan State Spartans. MSU will be darn tough to beat this season, but I do know that the Golden Grizzlies could be boosted by a supportive crowd at The Palace, if indeed that crowd sways toward Oakland. The harsh part about home games at The Palace is that a majority of the fans will no doubt be sporting green and white. This is just a fact of life in a state that hasn't fully embraced mid-major basketball and has tons and tons and tons of MSU alumni who came of age in East Lansing. It's wishful thinking on my part, but I hope to see a lot of black and gold in the stands on December 11.

Ticket Deals For The Lou Henson Tournament

I had made a habit of bringing out family members to the annual Summit League games that Oakland hosted around the holidays. The tickets, at least the last two seasons, were "buy one, get one free," which provided more incentive to get others involved over a period of time when students are not on campus and others might be more concerned with the holidays. This will likely be the case again this year for the Lou Henson Tournament at the O'Rena, so a great deal on tickets would surely be welcomed.

Fan Presence On The Road

Back in September, I put together "The Oakland Fan's 2010-11 Non-Conference Travel Guide" in an attempt to show casual observers how travel-friendly OU's schedule is this season. This was done in order to bring light to the fact that several of these games can be seen live with a four or five hour road trip. The post might be the most practical one ever published on the Gameplan. Based solely on the annual IPFW road trip, it's clear that Oakland fans will travel to take in a road game. I can only hope that some fans take advantage of this schedule, because they don't come around very often.

Packed Senior Night

Here's the thing: this year Senior Night is on the Saturday after Oakland shuts down for a week due to spring break. For new or casual fans, I can not stress enough the importance of this night. Not only will the Golden Grizzlies be playing what looks to be a solid (albeit young) South Dakota State team, it will also be the last chance to see Keith Benson, Will Hudson, and Larry Wright play a game in the O'Rena (barring any postseason home games). Larry Wright has been a solid two-year contributor, but Benson and Hudson have been at Oakland for five and four years, respectively. It's a chance to honor their very productive playing careers while rooting on the team in a tough late season conference match-up. The hope is that the O'Rena is packed despite the break.

At Least One Breakthrough Win

The games Oakland played against power-six teams last season all ended rather badly. The Golden Grizzlies will have seven opportunities against these schools in 2010-11, and one can only hope that at least one will result in a win for the program.

The NCAA Tournament

Last year was amazing, no doubt. The NCAA Tournament game was in Milwaukee, making travel relatively easy for Oakland fans via car. This year, however, it could be better. There are two first-weekend sites within driving distance of Rochester in Chicago and Cleveland. The hard part is actually getting to into the tournament, but it's clear that the locales set up nicely for Oakland. Obviously, every program wants to get to the NCAAs. It's not an easy feat, especially in the Summit League. However, OU returns a solid line-up and injects some new talent that should contribute. It's a long season, but boy would it be amazing to hear the Golden Grizzlies getting their name called on Selection Sunday again. We're in for a ride.

Expectations: Attendance

Attendance at the O'Rena has steadily grown over the past few years, especially in the realm of the student population. Last season, Oakland ranked third in the Summit League in average attendance and second in terms of the percentage of seats full. In fact, utilizing the listed O'Rena capacity of 3,000, Oakland sold 91% of seats on average for the season. That capacity is a bit misleading, however, as some of the biggest games at Oakland have had well over 3,000 people in attendance, including over 4,000 at a game against Missouri in 2003. Whatever the capacity, the fact remains that the O'Rena has had steady attendance figures which rank near the top in the conference.

Heading into the new season, there should be an expectation to keep these rates steady if not increase them. The program is coming off a championship season and NCAA Tournament appearance. Moreover, the team has a legitimate NBA prospect in the paint as well as several key players coming back. While marquee home games might be few and far between, there are enough storylines and noteworthy opponents to warrant the interest of casual fans. Capturing this section of the population is key. This will prove much easier to accomplish if the Golden Grizzlies can turn some heads during the slew of non-conference road games they play early in the season. If OU is able to pull off an upset over one of the BCS schools, the regional coverage will surely come flooding in. Thus, interest will grow.

The population we're more interested in is that of the students. This fall, Oakland University experienced its thirteenth straight year of enrollment growth, no doubt influenced by an incredibly large influx of transfer students. The overall number of students is 19,053, with undergrads making up 15,530 of that total. For fans who were once Pioneers, these numbers are probably rather astounding, though it's been clear over the past decade that student population growth has been a main priority of the administration. With over 15,000 students, one would expect to see more than a few scattered dozen occupying the student section during the games.

Fortunately, it appears that those sparsely attended games will be far from the norm for the foreseeable future. The student section last year was rather solid throughout the year, and one would expect that trend to continue especially given that the team should be solid once again. The main hurdle in increasing this number in the future will be directly linked to adding more student housing to the campus. It's no secret that students are much more likely to go to games, especially those on the weekends, if they are already living on the campus. Unfortunately, campus housing is pretty much maxed at this point, so the residential population can't swell at the same rate as overall student population growth. Thus, unless there is an increased initiative to get more commuter students involved with the student section, the growth of the Grizz Gang will be stunted, somewhat.

We continue to hope that there is a day when the O'Rena is packed for every game. The only thing holding this season back from breaking attendance records is the lack of those aforementioned marquee "names" that would draw in the casual basketball fan from the tri-county area. Otherwise, everything about Coach Kampe's program points to the fact that Oakland basketball should be a hot ticket in 2010-11. As fans, we must now step up to do our part. Bring a family member, a friend, or an alumni who hasn't reconnected with the university in years. They shouldn't be disappointed.

Breaking Down Attendance Figures In The Summit League

In sports we often measure the interest people have in a team with attendance figures. If a team is consistently selling out its arena, it's deemed a success. If the bleachers or plastic-backed chairs are empty, the team looks pitiful. A winning team, the conventional thinking goes, will attract more people to games. Lose, and your turnstile figures plummet. More often than not, this philosophy holds up for every sport on all levels. But for small college basketball programs, it's not always as easy as "win and get the people in."

There could be numerous reasons as to why mid-major programs struggle to have packed audiences game-in and game-out. The simple fact that marquee teams - the ones whose name alone may draw in the casual fan - rarely play away from home during the non-conference season is one such. Another may be conference affiliation; after all, even if your team is winning on a consistent basis, is it really worth it to go to a game against the conference doormat? A more dominating reason, perhaps, is that most people just don't follow what's going on at this level. For them, storylines involving the Lakers and Colts and Longhorns of the world are more appealing than those from the Jackrabbits and Thunderbirds and Kangaroos with which we are acquainted.

Looking at attendance averages from the 2009-10 season in The Summit League, this analysis tends to hold up well. Of the 10 conference members, only two had an average attendance equaling half of their arena's capacity. Even with that said, those two should be looked at closely. IUPUI, which averaged 1,316 attendees per game, only fits 1,215 in its Jungle gym. The inflated figure probably includes "home" games played at Conseco Fieldhouse, not unlike how OU's work when including matches at The Palace of Auburn Hills. While the Jaguars should be commended for fielding a team strong enough to pack its gym for every game, it should be noted that their modest capacity gives them a leg-up in this discussion.

Like IUPUI, Oakland University had a stunning occupancy rate of 91% for the season, a number calculated from the O'Rena's listed capacity of 3,000. However, anyone who follows the Golden Grizzlies knows the team regularly has crowds of more than 3k, and the all-time attendance record is upwards of 4,000. Using a modified capacity of 3,500, OU still fills 78% of seats per game; at 4,000 it drops to 68%. No matter the case, Oakland ranks second in The Summit League.

Aside from those two cases, it seems the occupancy rate for most schools in the conference suffers because their arenas are simply too big. IPFW and UMKC's 13,000 and 9,200 seat mammoths, respectively, are considerably big for two schools hanging around .500 every season. On the other hand, WIU's ability to fill only 19% of its 5,000+ seat Western Hall is more than likely due to its poor record over the past few years. There is a reason the teams at the top of this list are those competing for the conference crown every year. Other thoughts on these figures, in bulleted form:

• In this analysis, the biggest surprise has to be Southern Utah. Centrum Arena can hold 5,300 according to the team's website, and the team managed to average 2,098 fans per game, good for a rate of 40%. Basketball is king in Utah (and SUU has an advantage at home), but I will admit that I never suspected SUU to have this much support considering their recent performances on the court. I have lobbied in the past for SUU to move on to a better-fitting league, but this bit of information shines some light on the otherwise gloomy program.
• Oral Roberts blows every other Summit school out of the water with its 4,662 person average per game. And that is for an arena that can hold up to 10,575 fans! ORU set the standard for play on the court for much of the middle of the past decade, but their fan and community support continues to be the bar today. If ORU ever makes a serious move to leave The Summit League, their ability to attract large audiences will surely be one reason why.
• OU fans have long wondered whether the O'Rena is a big enough arena for the team, especially considering the progress the program has achieved as of late. This data proves that it is a good fit, for now. If anything larger were ever proposed, I'd like to see it be in the same vein as Frost and Bison Sports Arena, the homes of the two Dakota schools. Even with averages close to OU, each school is capable of selling out their roughly 6,000 seats for big games. It'd be pretty incredible if OU could draw 5,000-6,000 people per game for an entire season, but if the program had an arena that size, it'd be easier to market Rochester as a destination for the kind of opposing teams that could bring in the extra fans needed to make it viable.
• Western Illinois is currently stuck on the steepest incline in its uphill battle to find relevance in The Summit League. Reading about their basketball history is downright sad, but fortunately, they have a great coach in Jim Molinari and seem to be attracting players that fit well with his system. One can only hope they are able to attract bigger audiences this year, if not only to give the players some fans to play for.
• Poor Centenary. It is difficult to determine what Centenary's legacy will be in this conference, if any. It's both sad (long-time DI school) and a relief (lots of money for travel) to see them leave, but if it had to happen, it would have been great to go out with a bang. Their 881 average, however, shows they will not.

As the table shows, the conference as a whole had a total average of 2,137 attendees per game, good for approximately 45% of seats sold. While The Summit League isn't challenging the Missouri Valley Conference in this statistical department anytime soon, it's not quite terrible. With improved stability and competitiveness, the league should see this number jump up over the next few seasons.