Showing posts with label Weekly Recap. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Weekly Recap. Show all posts

Friday, March 11, 2011

The Gameplan's Championship Recap: ORU

For the second straight year, Oakland put on a show in the conference tournament championship game. Like IUPUI last season, Oral Roberts made a few runs that got the heart beating, but the Golden Grizzlies ultimately got the necessary stops to win this one going away. With the championship clinching win, it's on to the big bracket for the OU hoops squad.

The Run
When Oakland played Oral Roberts down in Tulsa earlier this season, the Golden Grizzlies played a dominant brand of basketball in the first half, and only a last-second three-pointer by Roderick Pearson stood between them and a double-digit lead at the halfway point. ORU bounced back in the second half and eventually grabbed a small lead, but Oakland did work down the stretch to retain the lead on its way to victory. In the championship game, OU's players came out firing just like they did at the Mabee Center, but this time they would head in at the break with a twelve point lead. When Oral Roberts came out gunning to begin the second half, it looked like this one would play out just like that December meeting.

ORU tied the game on a three-pointer by Warren Niles with 13:29 left in the game, and a mystical foul on Travis Bader led to Niles going to the line where he connected to give his team a one point lead. Then, despite precedent suggesting this one would be close, Oakland proceeded to put a thumping on the Golden Eagles for the next ten minutes in the form of a 28-9 run, all but assuring the automatic bid was safely defended. Here, I recap that run through the very subjective eyes of a stoked Grizzly fan:
13:14: Keith Benson passes out of the double-team to Will Hudson under the basket. Hudson completes the lay-up. Very comfortable play, team shows its poise. OU regains one-point lead. [Run: 2-0]

12:52: Dominique Morrison drives on Drew Valentine, Kito comes to help leading to an opening under the basket for Tim Morton, ORU's back-up big man. DoMo completes nice assist to Morton [Run: 2-2]
12:25: Reggie Hamilton hits a falling-back jumper after losing Ken Holdman thanks to a Keith Benson screen. He kisses it off the glass for good measure. A fairly unusual play for Reggie considering just 6.7% of all of his field goals in the regular season were two-point jumpers outside of the paint, per my stats tracking. [Run: 4-2]
11:53: Ken Holdman misses an open three. Drew Valentine grabs the board over Steven Roundtree. A break for the Grizzlies.
11:30: After a Larry Wright drive and miss, Will Hudson offensive rebound and miss, and Keith Benson offensive rebound, the officials call a foul on Steven Roundtree. Benson goes to the charity stripe, hits both. [Run: 6-2]
11:21: Tim Morton hits a jumper while extended in the paint. Kito was protecting the basket so he had some room, but who has Morton taking that shot, let alone hitting it? Brings ORU back to within one. [Run: 6-4]
11:07: Hamilton passes to Benson early in the possession. Benson posts up Morton deep in the post, gets an easy two. [Run: 8-4]
10:28: Warren Niles' pass to Ken Holdman is intercepted by Hamilton who proceeds to run the length of the court for a transition bucket [Run: 10-4]
10:13: Warren Niles loses Larry Wright off a screen, gets pass on perimeter, and opts for the NBA-range three. Misses. Rebound Benson.
9:57: Hamilton gets space off the dribble, shoots a quick three that misses. Ball bounces around a bit before heading toward the sidelines at centercourt - last touched by Benson. But Benson dives to the ground to save it toward Larry Wright who is promptly fouled. Wright sinks 'em both. A great effort by Benson to save the ball on that play. [Run: 10-4]
9:39: Damen Bell-Holter's shot attempt is swatted by Keith Benson.
9:38: Hamilton races to grab the deflection, but he is called for a foul on Rod Pearson at center court. Coach Kampe can not believe his eyes! Though as Rasheed Wallace might warn, "The ball don't lie." Pearson misses the front end of the 1-and-1.
9:27: After a Drew Valentine rebound, Oakland races up the court where Hamilton dishes off to a streaking Benson for a lay-up. ESPN play-by-play man Lou Canellis proclaims, "He's headed to the next level as a lottery pick!" " [Run: 12-4]
9:07: Rod Pearson misses a lay-up that was altered by both Hamilton and Benson.
8:59: Hudson tosses the rebounded ball to Hamilton who drives straight to the bucket and finishes despite a foul by Damen Bell-Holter. Sinks the and-1 attempt. Lead is now back to double-digits. [Run: 15-4]
8:47: ORU scoring drought is over after a Will Hudson foul leads to two made free-throws by Dominique Morrison. [Run: 15-6]
8:39: OU breaks the ORU press, leading to a quick alley-oop pass from Valentine to Benson who dunks it home (the second one in this clip). [Run: 17-6]

8:19: Warren Niles forced into a long two-point jump shot after Hudson stops his path to the basket. Misses. Hamilton grabs rebound and...
8:11: ...takes the ball down the court and weaves through two defenders for yet another transition lay-up where a foul was called again. Canellis yells, "HE JUST DID THAT!" Yes, he did. He's a gunner. Hamilton misses the and-1 attempt. [Run: 19-6]
7:54: Damen Bell-Holter puts up a shot attempt over Keith Benson that soars over the top of the backboard. No comment.
7:40: Out of a media timeout, Hamilton spots up and drains a three over Ken Holdman. Ice cold! [Run: 22-6]
7:04: Will Hudson foul leads to two free-throws for Dominique Morrison. (It should be noted both fouls on Will so far in this run were on attempts to draw the charge) He goes 1-of-2. [Run: 22-7]
6:48-42: Ken Holdman finally gets the best of Hamilton, causing him to make an errant pass. Holdman shows off some of his own quickness by taking the ball from end-to-end for a lay-up. [Run: 22-9]
6:18: Grizzlies go to Benson on the block, guarded by Damen Bell-Holter. The sophomore big nicks Benson on the arm as he falls away with a jump shot. Shot does not fall, but one of the two free-throws does go in. [Run: 23-9]
6:01: Dominique Morrison misses a three contested by Valentine. Ledrick Eackles pulls down the board!
5:50: Hamilton cuts through the lane before dishing to Benson who is fouled by Steven Roundtree. The Newcomer of the Year fouls out with 5:50 left. Great year for the young forward, but foul trouble was an issue for him all year. During the free-throw attempts (Benson hits 1-of-2 again), they show the following graphic where, yet again, the loss to Wright State is lamented! [Run: 24-9]
5:29: Rod Pearson makes a nice move toward the basket but misses as he attempts a wrap-around lay-up.
5:01: With a 16-point lead, Hamilton takes his time bringing the ball up the court, which clearly messed with his aura because he only has one speed: go! It goes without saying that he misses the shot attempt.
4:55-51: Drew Valentine pops the ball out of Dominique Morrison's hands, which conveniently lands in Hamilton's hands. Hamilton gives the transition pass to Drew who dunks it with authority. [Run: 26-9]
4:38-32: Rod Pearson again tries to get off a shot in the paint, but Keith Benson's outstretched arms send the ball into the palms of Ledrick Eackles. Eackles, showcasing his own end-to-end speed, runs with Hamilton up the court and dishes to the junior for yet another transition bucket. And with that Oakland has itself a 20-point lead, thus completing the majority of this run. [Run: 28-9]
Most would agree the game was pretty much wrapped up at that point. OU bumped the lead to as high as 24 before ORU made a couple of late buckets to get it to a respectable fourteen point deficit at close. To recap the recap:
  • ORU's leading scorer during this stretch was Tim Morton with four points. Morrison had three points from free throws, and Holdman had a lay-up off the only forced turnover during the stretch. Furthermore, two of ORU's possessions ended because of an OU steal or block. A full six of the team's other possessions ended on missed field goals that were contested. Only two attempts - Holdman's three and Niles' NBA three - were mostly uncontested.
  • Hamilton led the team with 12 points during this stretch. Kito chipped in 10. Will, Drew, and Larry each had two. Winners, all of them.
What a run! This team's will to win showed up throughout the season and conference tournament, but nowhere was it more needed than right after Bader went to the bench with his fourth foul and Niles put ORU ahead. The team's seniors stepped up, and its unequivocal leader proved why he has earned such a role.

Keith Benson In Championship Games
Oakland's senior center had his best championship as a Grizzly against ORU in terms of point production, but he has more or less had monster lines all three times he's played in the Tuesday finale on ESPN2. His per game averages in those three games:
  • Points: 16.7
  • Field goal shooting: 59%
  • Rebounds: 15.0
  • Blocks: 4.0
Benson also had four assists in this most recent battle. Most importantly, he leaves Oakland 2-1 in championship games. Not a bad winning percentage to have on one's resume.

The Drew Valentine Signature
This is old news by now, but Drew Valentine was able to conduct his signature play yet again in the championship game. On this one, he steals a pass aimed for Dominique Morrison that leads to a transition dunk.
What's Next?
Oakland heads to the NCAA Tournament for the second straight season as The Summit League's automatic qualifier. The team will find out its seed, site, and first round opponent on Sunday evening's Selection Show on CBS.

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

The Gameplan's Semifinal Recap: SDSU

True to the form of their previous meetings, the semifinal game between Oakland and South Dakota State was an offensive juggernaut where a lot of points were scored. Oakland got out to a hot start in the opening minutes and never looked back, eventually winning by a score of 110-90. Though SDSU received large contributions from its underclassmen - notably Nate Wolters, Jordan Dykstra, and Chad White - Oakland's experience, hunger, and confidence proved to be the difference, allowing the Golden Grizzlies to dominant most facets of the match. For more on how the game went down and reaction to it from the coaches and players, check out the game stories from Paul Kampe of The Oakland Press here and Dan Fenner of The Oakland Post here. And post-game press conference video from the conference is here, plus a WXOU interview with Drew Valentine here.

Superlatives
Where does one start with a performance like the one the Golden Grizzlies turned in on Monday evening? Scoring 110 points in a tournament game? The stunning production of sophomore Drew Valentine? The 57% three-point shooting? Keith Benson's well-rounded game? Travis Bader's squandering of SDSU's Clint Sargent? The ridiculous turnover rate? Or how about ESPN's Andy Katz chiming in about his respect for all things Oakland? Well, as has often been the case on this blog, let's first turn to Oakland's offensive efficiency.

If you read the preview for this game, you'll remember the table included with the possession-based offensive efficiency data. In two meetings, Oakland had scored 0.13 more points per possession than its conference season average on SDSU's defense, while SDSU managed to go for just 0.04 more points per trip than its own average on Oakland's defense. In the semifinal game, SDSU managed to boost this to 0.06, but it allowed Oakland to go for 0.31 more points per possession than its season average! It was, simply put, an absolute drubbing. Consider that Oakland's 1.50 points scored per possession was not only a season-high for the team, but it also ranked second in the entire nation out of ALL games played between Division I teams this season. Here's the top five, according to BBState.com:
It's interesting that the top three performances all happened in the past three days. Syracuse's is probably a bit misleading given the fact that Depaul is a cellar dweller in the Big East, but the drubbings put forth by Ohio State and Oakland were against fairly solid teams from their respective conferences. It's been no secret that Oakland's offense has been great, but for most of the season that has been the case despite the team's tendency to turn the ball over. The team has improved in that department over the year, but one of the reasons it was so efficient last night was because of its superb turnover rate. On this night we were able to see just how explosive Oakland can be sans those turnovers. To put the team's 5.5% turnover rate in perspective, consider the following:
  • 1. Oaklands 5.5% turnover rate against SDSU was a team best out of all Summit League teams, besting the next best by nearly a full percentage point (interesting: two of the top five were by SDSU against Oakland in the regular season).
  • 2. Oakland's next best turnover rate all season was 10.8% against Southern, a game which still stands as Oakland's most dominating performance of the season (taking into account both sides of the ball).
Astouding, really.

In other statistical superlatives, the team's 57.7% field goal shooting was its third best shooting performance of the year, and its 57.1% shooting from beyond the arc was second only to the home game against IUPUI. The 22 team assists mark was tied with several other games as its third best output of the season. Games like this only come around so often, and for Oakland, it certainly came at the right time. Talk about an "A game."

The Tournament Breakout Of Drew Valentine
On a night when all of Oakland's starters scored at least 12 points and contributed so much more in other numerical categories, there was no one with a more beefy line that sophomore Drew Valentine. The forward went off for 24 points by going 7-of-8 on his two-pointers, 3-of-5 on his three-point shots, and 1-of-1 from the free throw line. Drew also chipped in a team-high 11 rebounds, three of which came on the offensive glass. But no discussion of his offensive game would be appropriate without a look at his signature move, which he completed just minutes into the game:
We've seen Valentine execute that same play against so many different Summit League teams this season, so it was a great way for him to get going in this game. From there, he proceeded to get things done in transition, off the dribble, via tip-ins from offensive boards, and the standard lay-up. Here was what his shot chart looked like for the game, where the light blue lines represent drives, blue circles as makes, and white circles as misses. The "L" is for layup, "D" for dunk, and "3" for three-pointers.
Unfortunately, the shot chart doesn't capture well the intangibles Valentine demonstrated during the game. He finished at the rim like his more seasoned counterparts, and his determination on the boards was a pleasure to see. In his post game interview with WXOU's Bryan Everson, Valentine mentioned that he hasn't needed to be a featured scoring option this year with all of the great scorers on his team, but he made it clear that he can indeed be such a player when it's necessary. There's no doubting that sentiment now after this performance, which was all sorts of clutch. Like Blake Cushinberry's semifinal game last year, this is the kind of output that widens the eyes of Grizzlies fans. There's no telling what kind of ceiling the still young Drew Valentine has ahead of him, but if he makes plays like the one below, it must be pretty high.



How About Bader?
Travis Bader continues to exude the utmost confidence in his abilities despite the fact he's still just a redshirt freshman. At one point during the telecast, the commentators brought up the question of who they'd rather have in a game of H.O.R.S.E.: Bader or SDSU's Nate Wolters. One guy responded with Wolters because he had not seen Bader showoff much creativity. Within 30 seconds of that brief discussion, Bader made a winding move to the basket off the dribble that led to a nice two-point bucket. The commentators immediately gave credit to Bader for proving them wrong. What they didn't know was that it was a fairly new play for Oakland's starting shooting guard. Truth is, we haven't seen him attempt many shots from inside the arc like that. But in a key game, he again came through. He also came through from downtown, hitting four of his seven shot attempts. But hey, what's new in that regard? Well, how about a deeeep three that rivals Jimmer Fredette territory:
And Then There's That One Guy
Despite Oakland's balanced attack thus far, it was Reggie Hamilton and Drew Valentine who proved most captivating in these first two tournament games. Meanwhile, Oakland's center has - almost quietly - put together two very strong performances thus far. Fitting for a senior Player of the Year. What I enjoyed most about Benson's contributions against SDSU was his aggressive play on the offensive boards. It's not often that Kito has just as many offensive as defensive boards, but he did just that on Monday night. He was hitting jumpers and going up hard against SDSU's weaker frontline. And he completed a couple very nice passes that lead to easy baskets for his teammates. His most exciting play, though, came on an alley-oop pass where he not only connected, but also posterized Jordan Dykstra in the process:
What's Next?
The Golden Grizzlies are set to face off against Oral Roberts on Tuesday night at 9:00pm EST. The game will air live on ESPN2. The national television audience will get a chance to see a great game between the league's top teams and programs, and an NCAA Tournament bid is on the line.

Sunday, March 6, 2011

The Gameplan's Quarterfinal Recap: SUU

Oakland won its quarterfinal game against Southern Utah last evening by a score of 82-66. Similarly to the last game between these two squads, Oakland built a solid lead in the last two minutes of the first half before pulling away during the second half. For now, the Golden Grizzlies advance and await for their next opponent to be determined at the conclusion of tonight's SDSU-IPFW tilt. For a full recap of last night's game, you can check out game stories from a number of sources, including The Oakland Press, The Oakland Post, and the Detroit Free Press. Additionally, the conference provided video of the post-game press conference here, and WXOU also has its own post-game interview with Coach Kampe available here. Great coverage, all around!

Defensive Score Sheet
Last night's quarterfinal game was a much more efficient affair than the regular season closer between Oakland and Southern Utah a week ago in Cedar City. Both teams scored well above last week's rate, despite the fact the score was nearly the same. As a result, the defensive score sheet from this game was a bit less extreme than last week's edition. For a brief introduction to the concept of a defensive score sheet, check out the debut post from Friday. Now we'll dive right into the charts, starting with Oakland.
When comparing charts between games, one might wonder why this week's individual defensive ratings are higher. This is due to the fact that individual defensive ratings are calculated in part from the team defensive rating. The tournament game featured a much more average defensive performance by Oakland, on a per-possession base, than the last one which was on the extreme low end (note that OU's "average" defensive output is tops in the league - so this is a good thing). As a result, the numbers look higher, when indeed they are still quite strong. The column that really stands out to me is that of Percent of Team Defensive Possessions. We would expect, on average, each player to account for 20% of a team's defensive possessions, and Oakland comes really close to achieving this standard. As opposed to the last game where Keith Benson was active at a very high clip, this time he's right on the average mark at 20%. SUU went at Travis Bader quite a bit for the second straight game as the redshirt freshman, along with Benson and Will Hudson, faced the highest number of possessions in raw terms. In what has been a trend between these two teams, Ilija faced an incredible amount of possessions in very limited minutes. But his stop percentage improved drastically here (from 16% to 35%). Kudos.

Now we turn to Southern Utah's score sheet. Unlike Oakland, SUU allowed the offense to score well above what it has allowed on average in conference play.
Oakland's bigs went at SUU's frontcourt from the post and the guards attacked them from the perimeter, so we end up seeing guys like Matt Massey and Kyle Davis accounting for a lot of the team's defensive possessions. Ray Jones, Jr. was also above the average by this standard, no doubt due to the many times he found himself trying to prevent Reggie Hamilton from driving to the hoop in the first half. Here's one play where Hamilton shakes off Jones and scores over Massey's out-stretched arms:

There's nothing too alarming here with the rest of the SUU defensive score sheet, though I do want to showcase the individual lines of Matt Massey and another of SUU's many post options, Matt Hodgson.
Massey had a stop percentage of just 12% in the time he was on the floor, in large part due to Keith Benson getting the best of him. Benson was hitting most of his jumpers and hook shots, and he was going up hard when deep in the post. Massey took the brunt of those makes, and while he hit a few jumpers over Benson himself, he was definitely overmatched on this night. Matt Hodgson, on the other hand, used his length to bother shots. He and Benson shared the court at times during the game, and a few of those forced misses or defensive boards were while guarding Benson. Perhaps most incredibly, Hodgson didn't commit any fouls that sent a player to the stripe - this from a guy whose minutes have often waned due to foul trouble. Hodgson did, however, make a lazy pass that led to this:
And that was the story of the game for Oakland. No matter the adjustments Southern Utah made, they were just too talented and focused for the Thunderbirds to pull an upset.

Reggie The Conquerer
In his first elimination game as a Golden Grizzly, junior Reggie Hamilton did not disappoint. His performance in the first half was simply otherworldly. He scored 21 points during the opening 20 minutes, hitting everything from floaters in the lane to spot-up threes from downtown. He used his defense to create offense, and he got to the free throw line off the dribble-drive. All aspects of his skillset were on display, including his constantly improving ball control (just two turnovers). That run he made in the first half ensured Oakland's lead was safe while SUU was still within striking distance, and his teammates picked up where he left off in the second half. What I enjoyed about Hamilton's performance, more than the numbers, was his demeanor. At one point while he was shooting a free throw, the camera panned in on him and he looked mean, confident, ready to win. It's the "gunner" face:
Hamilton had that face early in the season, especially during the first few road games, but I had thought it was born more out of frustration from his early struggles than anything else. But as I watched him more and as he found his fit as the team's lead guard, it began to look more and more like that gunner mentality. Sure, such play can lead to mistakes from trying too force the issue, but more often than not, it has worked for Hamilton to the benefit of the team. It's a trait that is unique to him on this squad; no one else has exhibited that same kind of "take it to you" attitude. And for Hamilton to put it on display in the tournament, as he has done often in conference play, is a good omen for the Golden Grizzlies as they try to move forward.

An Excuse To Show You Travis Bader's Block
We all know Travis Bader has the smoothest stroke on the team, but apparently he's also been working on his swatting form. At about the midpoint of the second half, Bader had a great block on Ray Jones, Jr. from the weak side. Not only was the block cool, but it lead to a transition three-pointer for Drew Valentine assisted by, you guessed it, Travis Bader!

That was Bader's fifth block of the year, so it's safe to say it's a moment that should be treasured. Bader's passing ability has also been on display in recent weeks, including this quarterfinal game where he had four dishes. He was also the recipient of a pretty sick pass from Larry Wright:


Bader also had an NBA-range three, available in .gif form here. In non-Bader multimedia entries, you can also check out a great play from Larry Wright here. What I liked most about that one was that he was aggressive on the defensive glass and used his quickness in the open court and agility in the paint to get a good look in transition. Finally, a little love for Keith Benson: a stop and pop jumper tailor made for the NBA.

What's Next
Oakland moves on to the semifinals face the winner of tonight's SDSU-IPFW game. In addition to being available on ESPN3.com, the game will air live on Fox Sports Detroit, which is also a win for the local area! That game will be played Monday night at 7:00pm.

Monday, February 28, 2011

The Gameplan's Weekly Recap: UMKC/SUU

The Big Picture
Oakland closed its regular season this weekend with a sweep of UMKC and SUU on the longest trip in conference play. The wins came in different ways, one an offensive shootout and the other a defensive effort, but they ultimate sealed a second-straight 17-1 season for the Golden Grizzlies. In the biggest of pictures, hopefully we all get a chance to reflect on what the program has done over the past two years in going 34-2 in conference play. The conference tournament is just a few days away now, but this was another exceptional season for Oakland. Many congrats to the program are due as well as many thanks for providing us with a lot of exciting, and winning, basketball to watch this year.

Winning Basketball
Oakland used a hyper-efficient offensive night against UMKC and a hard-nosed defensive approach against SUU to finish the season as the conference's leader in efficiency on both ends of the court. It didn't always look like this would be the case, especially in the last few weeks, given the explosive SDSU offense and the much-improved ORU defense. But as it stands, Oakland's 1.19 points per possession and 1.00 points allowed per possession stand as tops in both categories. That's a testament to the team's winning ways, an approach that over the course of the season has valued offense just as much as defense. And while statistics often give us more reason to doubt than to champion, this weekend's results, as wacky as they may be, should show the versatility of this team.

Let's consider first the UMKC game. It was a high scoring game on an average number of possessions for Oakland, which led to an incredible scoring rate of 1.40 points per trip. That stands as Oakland's most efficient night in conference play. On the other hand, UMKC went for 1.22 points per trip, again a season-high for points allowed by the Oakland defense. It was, quite simply, a night when the Golden Grizzlies out-performed the opponent on the offensive end. Such games have gone in Oakland's favor all season long in conference play, even against high-powered South Dakota State.

After the UMKC game, Oakland showed off its defensive might against SUU in holding the Thunderbirds to 0.89 points per possession. That stands as the team's best defensive performance of the second-half of conference play, and it lags only behind truly dominant home games against Centenary, UMKC, and Western Illinois for the entirety of league play. On the other side of the ball, the Golden Grizzlies only went for 1.02 points per possession, far below their season average but still quite higher than what they allowed the T-Birds. We've now twice seen in the last two weeks (SUU and NDSU) the team struggle on the offensive end but come out with a win because of its defense.

While we may not be sure of the precise way Oakland will be oriented on a given night, this season's efficiency data shows us that one way or another it will be a winning formula.

Return To Form
Another reason Oakland was successful on this road trip was because of its rebounding effort. The raw numbers show as much, but the rebounding rates the team posted were astronomical. For the first time since the second week of conference play, the Golden Grizzlies posted back-to-back double-digit rebounding rate differentials. Additionally, the team posted two of its top three offensive rebounding performances of the conference season this weekend:

1. 54.5% offensive rebounding rate (at UMKC - 2/24/11)
2. 48.4% (at SDSU - 1/27/11)
3. 45.0% (at SUU - 2/26/11)
4. 40.0% (home UMKC - 12/4/10)
4. 40.0% (at ORU - 12/30/10)

So on average, Oakland rebounded approximately 49% of its own misses in the games against UMKC and SUU ... quite a feat! A week after losing the board battle to both NDSU (4.4% difference) and SDSU (2.7% difference), the Golden Grizzlies rebounded with truly dominant performances this week.

"Free Ilija" Watch
It's our last "Free Ilija" update, and it's highlighted by something the seven-footer rarely gets a chance to do: free throws! The Serbian Assassin attempted three free throws at SUU on Saturday night, making two of them. Before Ilija is ultimately "freed" next season, there is always a chance his number will be called in Sioux Falls this weekend. And as he showed us at Tennessee, he can make an impact even if he only plays for five minutes.

Non-Keith Benson Stud Of The Week: Will Hudson
A weekly shoutout to the best Golden Grizzly not named Keith Benson.
Will Hudson continues to play at a high level as his career winds down. He notched back-to-back double-doubles this weekend, marking the first time he's done that all season. He continues to work incredibly hard on the offensive glass, which in turn has afforded him a lot of open looks. Simply, the senior has come to play, and Oakland has been all the better for it. A final factor to note: in the last four games Hudson has made 21 of his 26 free throw attempts (81%). While he had a rough patch in the middle of the season at the stripe, his free throw shooting has been strong as of late and will surely be needed in Sioux Falls.

What's Next?
Oakland will head to Sioux Falls, South Dakota, this weekend to begin play in the conference tournament. The first game is a Saturday rematch with Southern Utah. It's win and advance or lose and go home from here on out. Best of luck to the Golden Grizzlies as they prepare for the tournament.

Monday, February 21, 2011

The Gameplan's Weekly Recap: NDSU/SDSU

The Big Picture
Oakland sent its seniors off with two more wins at the O'rena this weekend, including a 105-96 victory over South Dakota State on Senior Night. Keith Benson, Will Hudson, and Larry Wright all put up big numbers in their last home game and capped the night off with a series of speeches to the crowd that showcased their character. It also gave the Oakland fans a chance to show their appreciation for the trio of seniors who have delivered back-to-back regular season championships. With the regular season championship clinched on Thursday night, the next time the Golden Grizzlies will have cause for celebration is if they win the tournament championship in Sioux Falls.

Efficiency Trends
In conferences like The Summit League, teams are not rewarded with at-large berths to the NCAA Tournament. Consequently, the only way for a program like Oakland to make the field of 68 is to claim the automatic bid that comes with winning a conference tournament championship. Generally, then, we can expect coaches to have their teams playing their best basketball heading into the beginning of March. In Oakland's case, this is something we've heard Coach Greg Kampe talk about time and again over the years. His focus on preparing his team for March has undoubtedly been the force behind Oakland's success in the conference tournament. But beyond general inferences, how can we quantify whether a team is truly peaking at the right time? To answer, let's turn to efficiency margin.

The concept of efficiency margin is fairly simple: points scored per possession less points allowed per possession. It's a tempo-free way to explain a basketball team's efficiency, and it's relevance is boosted when one uses only games played in conference since the playing field is deemed even. John Gasaway of BasketballProspectus.com looks at the efficiency margin of teams in high major and elite mid-major conferences each week, and following that model, I have been keeping track of this measure for The Summit League throughout the season. But instead of calculating the efficiency margin for one point in the conference season, I thought it would be interesting to see how it changes over the course of the year. With this idea in mind, I charted Oakland's efficiency margin in conference play for the 18 games played in the past three seasons. The 2010-11 EM is through the 16 games played thus far:
To aid in consuming the information presented here, first note that a positive efficiency margin is an indication of a good team (one which scores more points than it gives up). The higher the efficiency margin, the more dominant the team. Second, note that the horizontal axis represents the number of games played in the conference season.

We'll start with the 2008-09 season, one in which Oakland got off to a rough start before getting hot throughout the month of February. If any season represented the coaching mantra of "peaking at the right time," this was it. Oakland used its improved offensive and defensive efficiency to make a run to the conference championship game. Unfortunately, North Dakota State was a better team that year, and even the in-season adjustments Oakland made weren't enough to topple the Bison. In the 2009-10 season, the Golden Grizzlies were more or less dominant throughout, including an incredible stretch in the month of January where their efficiency margin was as high as +.24. While the team wasn't quite ascending during the last few weeks, it was at least very consistent hovering around the +.13 mark. Using that consistency streak, Oakland would go on to win the tournament championship.

Now we turn to this season. Janus-like, we can look at this in two different ways. First, the green line representing 2010-11 is clearly on the decline. Over the course of the last month, both Oakland's possession-based offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency have been falling; consequently, so has its efficiency margin. For the first time in league play, Oakland now rests under +.20 in this measure. Essentially, the Golden Grizzlies haven't been as dominant as they were in the early part of the season. Opposing teams are closing the gap.

However, that closing gap is still gaping! We can look at this decreasing efficiency as merely a team coming down from an incredible high. After all, there aren't too many teams who could keep up a +.30 efficiency margin throughout the course of a season. As a result, Oakland in 2010-11 has had more room to fall than previous versions, yet it still owns a decided advantage over the rest of its conference counterparts. Here, in it's entangled glory, is a visualization of efficiency margin trends in The Summit League.
I will have more on each team that should be easier to discern in tomorrow's conference wrap-up, but the basic idea should come through here: OU has been far and away the most efficient team all season long. So even though Oakland hasn't been quite as dominant lately, the team has still found a way to win. In blowouts, close games, and everything in between, these Golden Grizzlies have come out victorious. Such a pedigree will surely come in handy in Sioux Falls.

Hamilton, The Distributor
After his 11 assist performance on Saturday against South Dakota State, Reggie Hamilton is now averaging 6.4 assists per game in conference play. That mark sets him alone as the leading distributor in league play just ahead of SDSU's Nate Wolters (6.1). Since becoming Oakland's lead ball-handler around the time Larry Wright was first injured, Hamilton has proven to be quite effective at finding his teammates for open shots. The only knock against the junior in this role is that he has often coughed the ball up, but his assist-to-turnover ratio has improved in recent weeks. In last week's recap, I showed how Hamilton has become the team's leading player in terms of creating his own shot, but he has also been great at creating shots for others as well.

I first saw the concept of attributing a player's assists from SI.com's Luke Winn, who developed his own spin on Hoopism.com's study on assists in the NBA. Since this model has been replicated a bit on other team-specific blogs, I thought I'd do a slightly different spin on the visualization, though the basic premise is the same. Here, we see the distribution of Reggie Hamilton's assists through 16 conference games.
It should come as no surprise to Oakland fans that a majority of Hamilton's assists are to Keith Benson, Drew Valentine, Will Hudson, and Travis Bader. After all, these are the players he is most often on the court with, and it's also been Oakland's starting line-up for the better part of league play. Benson is the primary benefactor of Hamilton's passes, which makes sense as the 6-foot-11 center is often the focal point of the offense. I was hoping some trend would become apparent with the rest of the guys, yet I found that Hamilton's assists were distributed fairly evenly. There is about a one percent difference in assisted baskets between Valentine, Hudson, and Bader. Hamilton doesn't really favor a particular guy, he just hits who is open or in position to score. As a sign of Oakland's good fortune this season, the team has several guys capable of knocking down shots from all over the court, and Hamilton has done a great job of finding his teammates in those spots.

"Free Ilija" Watch
Ilija's playing time continues to disappear as Oakland finds itself in increasingly tight games, but he was able to have an impact on the South Dakota State game by draining a three in the corner. With that make, he improves to 4-of-10 on three-point shooting in conference play.

Non-Keith Benson Stud Of The Week: Will Hudson
A weekly shoutout to the best Golden Grizzly not named Keith Benson.
All three seniors closed out the O'rena with a bang, but Will Hudson was the one doing the most banging around for the Golden Grizzlies this week. In his post-game interview on Saturday, there was plenty of evidence of this: a stitched-up eye, scratches on his biceps, a bruise. Hudson took his fair share of hits this weekend, yet he remained as tough as ever throughout. In two games, he gobbled up 18 rebounds (eight on the offensive glass) and blocked five shots in total. He also went 9-of-11 from the field and 14-of-18 from the charity stripe for 32 points. He was, simply, a beast.

What's Next?
Oakland will wrap up the regular season with a tough road trip to UMKC and SUU. The Kangaroos have been a tough out at their on-campus arena this season, and the Thunderbirds always seem to give Oakland close games in Cedar City. It will be interesting to see how the team approaches these games, considering the travel involved and the need to stay healthy and alert for Sioux Falls, and the fact that the regular season championship is already wrapped up.

Sunday, February 13, 2011

The Gameplan's Weekly Recap: IPFW (2)

The Big Picture
A week after they were on the wrong side of the fouling distribution, the Golden Grizzlies used a substantial free throw advantage against IPFW to help them seal the victory. With the win, Oakland sweeps the season series with the Mastodons but should remain cautious of this senior-led team that could get hot in Sioux Falls. For now, though, Oakland continues to distance itself from the rest of the conference pack.

The Playmaker Quandary, Solved
Prior to the beginning of the season, I conducted an analysis of Oakland's shot creation during the 2009-10 season. In order to determine which Oakland players were the best at finding their own shot, I used play-by-play data from the box scores to split shots into those made as the result of an assist and those that were not. The resulting rate, Assisted Field Goal Percentage, then identifies which players are the best and worst at making their own play. For that season, then-seniors Johnathon Jones and Derick Nelson were by far the best playmakers, particularly on inside baskets. Jones, in particular, was otherworldly: only 12% of his inside buckets were assisted, meaning that he was able to cut to the basket for Oakland better than any other guard on the team. With that said, I wondered if any current Golden Grizzlies would be able to fill this very large void in 2010-11.

Well, with four regular season games remaining, Reggie Hamilton has proven to be an even more impressive playmaker than Johnathon Jones. I have been keeping track of these statistics throughout the season, and after another great performance against IPFW on Saturday, Hamilton surpassed Jones' raw figures (which include the three tournament and NCAA tournament games). Take a look (click to enlarge):
The chart shows us that of Hamilton's inside baskets, only 8% have come as the result of an assist. In raw figures, there is only a two basket difference between Jones and Hamilton in this regard; however, Hamilton is bound to continue to add to the "No Assist" side in these last few weeks. As for jump shots, the two players are just about even. When I tallied up the totals last season, I did not split jump shots between twos and threes, but I alleviated that this year. It's not shown in the chart, but only 11 of Hamilton's jump shots have been two-pointers outside of the paint. I can't say for certain what the total for Jones would have been, but based on memory, I'd say that about half of his jump shots were two-pointers. This is the main difference between Hamilton and Jones as scorers. Jones was able to pop back on the fastbreak for a 12-foot jumper, whereas Hamilton almost always attacks the basket. I do not have the statistics to back up this next assumption, but I would guess this is the reason why Hamilton gets called for charges more often than Jones did last year.

As for Hamilton, his ability to see plays unfold has continued to make him a scoring threat off the dribble-drive. Though he's been prolific in this regard, Hamilton has consistently deferred any praise to his teammates for giving him open lanes to score. While his humility is respected, I would say that he is just as often as responsible as his teammates' off-the-ball movements. But to begin with, we'll look at a play where Hamilton scored in a half-court set where his teammates help to give him an open lane.
In frame 1, Hamilton is setting the offense at the top of the key after a few passes on the perimeter failed to ignite a scoring opportunity. All of the players are shifting to the left, which is how Ledrick Eackles ends up on the opposite side of the picture in frame 2. Here, Hamilton is guarded by Ben Botts in isolation, and as he makes a move toward the basket in frame 3, we can see that the lane is completely open thanks to the shifting from the previous frames. As Hamilton drives off the dribble, the defense begins to collapse, and Drew Valentine's defender leaves him completely open in frame 4. As a result, Hamilton has the option of dishing off to Valentine for the open look on the perimeter, but he goes ahead with a spinning jumper in the lane instead. It wasn't the prettiest of his inside looks, but Hamilton rarely fails to finish in such a position.

Just as often, Hamilton gets inside buckets through team defense that leads to fastbreak opportunities. The junior guard is great in the open court and has the ball-handling skills and vision to find open lanes in such opportunities. Let's take a look at one of these plays from the IPFW game:
In the left frame, Hamilton is leading a fastbreak opportunity that arises from an IPFW turnover around the half-court line. In such a situation, Hamilton has typically done one of two things: 1) go hard at the basket, or 2) dish off to a teammate for a quick shot attempt. In other words, rarely does this team pass up an opportunity for a fastbreak bucket. In this particular play, Hamilton recognizes the open lane and uses his superb knifing ability to cut into the lane. In the right frame, he still has the option to pass off to Benson for a quick dunk, but Hamilton, confident as ever, goes up strong for the easy lay-up.

At this point in the season, Hamilton has surpassed Jones in terms of his raw scoring ability. He is as dangerous an option in isolated situations as he is on the fastbreak. One could argue that he's a more dangerous three-point shooter than Jones, too. And while he may turn the ball over more than Jones did, it's worth noting that in conference play no one is averaging more assists per game than Hamilton this season. He may not be the prototypical point guard, but Reggie Hamilton has been about as fine a playmaker - for himself and for others - as Oakland fans could have hoped for.

Shortly after the IPFW game, I asked one of my friends if Hamilton was working his way into Oakland basketball lore. After all, the block he had on a Ben Botts three-point attempt in the waning seconds was just another addition to a long list of clutch plays he's made this season. My friend's answer was that he's got a ways to go to reach the point of being a legend simply due to his short tenure. While I agree with that assessment, Hamilton's impact this season has been monumental, and with a few more quality games in March, no one will soon forget his contributions.

A Defining Identity
Oakland's student newspaper, The Oakland Post, had a great feature in this week's edition about "the many faces of the Oakland brand." The leading graphic, seen in the article here, depicts most of the different logos the university has used in recent years for both institutional and athletic purposes. In the article, the authors note that Oakland is still a young university without a concrete brand, and as a result, there exists an opportunity for the school to create such a defining identity. These thoughts are echoed in the paper's editorial, too. As a person with an interest in branding and design, I was very excited to see this article and to read that the university is looking to stick with one logo in the future. For too long there have been one too many logos out there, and nowhere has this been as prominent than with Athletics. For example, when my friend and I went to the Oakland-Purdue game, he pointed out that on one arena screen there was the lone "Grizzly face" logo and on another the interlocking OU letters. Purdue, meanwhile, stuck with its identifiable "P" logo, everywhere.

One logo that is not brought up in the article is the "block O" logo. This is the first year I have personally noticed it on more than just apparel; it's on promotional materials, the game balls, and even the cheer team outfits. I like the "block O" as I believe, in some ways, it represents a movement toward OU athletics being known simply as "Oakland" instead of Oakland University or the dreaded Oakland (Mich.). However, my only beef is in its name. While I have no idea what it is officially known as, a cursory check reveals that there is at least evidence it has been referred to as the "block O." The reason for my beef? Do a quick Google search for "Block O."

...

There is no way Oakland will be trumping Ohio State in the battle for the "block O" language. The scarlet and gray have simply had it for too long. Although the shape between the two logos is similar, I believe they are distinct enough even in a grayscale, side-by-side depiction:
Or maybe I've just seen it too often to easily tell the difference. Either way, the block O is cool, but the name, or at least the one I'm inferring here, has a rather formidable foe to go up against. There are people with degrees in this kind of stuff who are paid a lot of money to brand products and institutions, so I won't go as far as to offer an uneducated opinion on where the university should go from here. I will say that the University of Oregon managed to construct a logo that is utilized for both academic and athletic purposes, and I'd argue it is one of the most recognized symbols in higher education. In sum, I'm just happy to hear that OU is looking to create an undisputed Oakland brand, and I hope that the result of the process is an identity that serves the school and its community well.

"Free Ilija" Watch
Ilija recorded his first "trillion" of any sort this season in the game against IPFW. He played two minutes total but did not register a single statistic for the game (therefore, when you scan the boxscore, you will see a "2" followed by several zeros). So technically, Ilija achieved a "two-trillion" in the Saturday matinée. If that seems like a knock, it most certainly is not. To put his two-trillion performance in perspective, consider the fact that he logged two minutes against Purdue but drew two fouls, or that he had two turnovers in two minutes of playing time against Austin Peay. Ilija is officially a member of the Trillion Man March.

Non-Keith Benson Stud Of The Week: Drew Valentine
A weekly shoutout to the best Golden Grizzly not named Keith Benson.
The unheralded player in the IPFW games was Drew Valentine. Valentine drew a tough defensive assignment in Frank Gaines that may not have gone as well as hoped, but then again, Valentine did some damage on the offensive end as well. He hasn't been as involved in the offense as of late, but against IPFW he was very active and almost completely blew off three-point shooting in favor of putting the ball on the floor for high-percentage shots. As a result, he went 7-of-11 from the field for 14 points while pulling down seven rebounds and assisting three of his teammates' baskets. Kudos, Drew!

What's Next?
The Golden Grizzlies get to stay in Rochester this week but welcome two tough opponents in North Dakota State and South Dakota State. I consider these two teams to be the toughest travel partners in the league even when they are the visiting team. On Thursday, OU will meet an NDSU team that battled in their meeting at the Bison Sports Arena but ultimately came short thanks to some timely shooting by Larry Wright. Saturday, of course, is Senior Night for Oakland's trio of senior ballers. It's the last time to see Kito, Will, and Larry at the O'rena, and it comes against a team that has a more explosive offense than Oakland. In other words, get your tickets (or purchase your All-Access account) because these are not games you will want to miss!

Monday, February 7, 2011

The Gameplan's Weekly Recap: Western Illinois/IUPUI


The Big Picture
After picking up a strong win over Western Illinois on Thursday, Oakland suffered its first setback in conference play with a 100-88 loss at IUPUI. Indianapolis has not been good to the Golden Grizzlies in recent seasons as its the only place they have lost in the last two years of conference play. The Jaguars had an aggressive plan that was predicated on attacking the basket early and often, particularly with Keith Benson out of the game due to foul trouble. While the loss ends any hopes of an 18-0 conference season, one can only hope that it's a sting to be remembered when February rolls into March. After all, IUPUI gave Oakland a knockout punch last February, but it was ultimately OU that cut down the nets in Sioux Falls.

What To Make Of A Loss
Losing isn't something we've had to discuss much since December, which seems so long ago at this point in the season. Yet, a lost was suffered on Saturday at Conseco Fieldhouse to IUPUI, and now we're left wondering what to make of it. Well, to begin with, the Jaguars are a solid team and have proven as much in recent weeks. And while that team had a solid plan for attacking Oakland, we must also look at some other aspects of the game which may have dictated its outcome. In the interest of balance, we'll take a look at a few different factors, but we start with the issue of foul calling.

Fouls
Just perusing the box score, the first thing that should pop out to anyone is the free throw disparity. Oakland had seven attempts while IUPUI had 34. In raw fouls committed, OU had 26 and IUPUI had 15. That's a big gap, and the heavy foul calling on Oakland definitely affected the game. Late in the game, Coach Kampe was ejected after receiving two technical calls for, presumably, calling out the officials for the uneven foul distribution. So that added four extra free throws to the IUPUI total. Still, the disparity is large enough that it's worth looking into some season-long statistics to determine what could have gone wrong. With the help of StatSheet.com, let's first look at free throw rates for Oakland and IUPUI in conference games only. This is a measure of how often each team gets to the free throw line.
The "FTR" column gives each team's average free throw rate in conference games, but I split the games to show the impact of the February 5th match. Overall, one should be able to glean from this data that IUPUI and Oakland are polar opposites when it comes to getting to the free throw line. Oakland, prior to this game, had one of the highest rates in the conference while IUPUI hadconsistently been the worst. After the two teams met at Conseco, however, IUPUI made enough trips to the line to improve by a full percentage point while Oakland's lack of trips dropped it by over three points. That latter fact also moved Oakland into fifth in the conference in free throw rate.

Stemming from this split, I next wondered if this game represented an odd reality where Oakland wasn't as aggressive as usual, or if IUPUI was particularly adept at not fouling Oakland's shooters. To compare, let's look at opponent's free throw rate, a measure of how often each team sends the other team to the charity stripe.
After checking out the table, it's clear that this was a match-up of the conference's two best teams in terms of foul avoidance. This has been a strength of IUPUI throughout the season and one of the reasons (in addition to limiting turnovers) why that team has been successful thus far. However, Oakland is no slouch in this category either. The Golden Grizzlies have trailed IUPUI, sure, but they've been good about not committing fouls. Even after a game where they sent the opponent to the line for 34 attempts, the Grizzlies still rank second in the conference in opponent's free throw rate.

In sum, we shouldn't be so surprised that Oakland only had seven free throw attempts on Saturday night - IUPUI doesn't foul. However, we should be surprised that the Jaguars went to the line so much for two reasons. First, they are one of the weakest teams in the league at consistently drawing fouls. Second, Oakland is one of the best teams in the league at foul avoidance. Two other statistics back up this notion. First, Oakland's 9.5% free throw rate against IUPUI was its lowest of the season by a mile. The only other time the team was below 20% was when it was 19.7% at Ohio State (a notoriously "foul-phobic" team). Second, IUPUI's free throw rate of 54.8% was the highest Oakland had "allowed" all season long. The second worst was 52.6 in a loss to Valparaiso.

So was Oakland jobbed? One could certainly make that argument using the statistics, but it should be noted that IUPUI's plan all along was to attack the basket. They put themselves in a position where the officials had to make some tough calls. On the season, the number of fouls called in this game, 41, matches up well with each official's average for the year:

- Jerry Sauder: 38.7 fouls per game
- Eric Curry: 35.7 fpg
- Rob Kruger: 40.5 fpg

The major takeaway, though, was that those 41 foul calls were split 63/37 in favor of IUPUI. Whether or not that was "fair" is beyond the point now, but I know Grizzlies fans will be hoping that such a split does not occur again in Sioux Falls.

Interior Defense
Oakland has defended the paint extremely well all season long on the backs of Keith Benson and Will Hudson. The team has led the league in defensive field goal percentage throughout league play and currently holds opponents to a league-best 47.5% on two-point shots. However, in the game on Saturday, Oakland allowed IUPUI to make a whopping 62% of its two-pointers. One could argue that the reason for such a high percentage was due to the foul trouble of Benson and Hudson discussed above. However, credit should be given to the Jags for taking the ball to the basket instead of relying on jump shots or three-pointers. To put this figure into perspective over the course of the conference season, let's take a look at Oakland's two-point field goal defense.
Oakland started conference play by holding opponents to two-point shooting in the high 30s and low 40s, but lately these numbers have been gravitating toward the high 40s and low 50s. Oakland has still been winning these games with its own inside ability, but the IUPUI game surely marks a large departure from the norm. As a fan, the frustrating aspect of this statistic is that the Jaguars have a small frontline, which essentially means that a large portion of their buckets came from the lane penetration of guys like Alex Young (11-of-19 on twos), Leroy Nobles (4-of-6), and Stephen Thomas (6-of-10). The team's lone big man, Christian Siakam, also had a solid game (8-of-12). Siakam has been a big reason why IUPUI has been so solid as of late since he gives the team a much-needed presence in the paint. All told, IUPUI won the points in the paint battle 58 to 34. Maybe some of those points would have never happened if Benson wasn't on the bench for the last part of the second half due to foul trouble, but that's still a large total and serves as a reminder that this loss wasn't all about the foul disparity.

Turnovers
Coach Kampe has noted time and again that turnovers have been his team's biggest weakness this season. However, more often than not, Oakland's offense has just been too dominant for the turnover margin to make much of a difference on the outcome of the game. So after Oakland lost to IUPUI, I wanted to blame it on the turnovers, but the statistics don't back up that assumption. For one, each team had 14 turnovers, and the points scored from turnovers was 16-15 in favor of Oakland. It seems that in a game where a couple of things were going wrong, turnovers still didn't signal defeat for Oakland. Also of note is that OU had 21 assists against both IUPUI and Western Illinois. That's some impressive ball movement that bodes well for the future.

Ryan Bass Watch
Ryan Bass continues to be my favorite bench player to monitor as he has shown some glimpses of greatness in limited minutes this season. We all know that he can leap and pass, but his offensive game has largely remained a mystery. That picture started to come into focus a bit more over the weekend as the freshman logged a very important 21 minutes in OU's loss to IUPUI. While Bass did not get a dunk, he was able to drive to the basket and knocked down a killer three-pointer that kept Oakland within reach of IUPUI in the final minutes. Most impressively, he continued to showcase his passing ability as he had five assists, a season high (he also had four against Western Illinois in 13 minutes).

"Free Ilija" Watch
The seven-footer had a solid showing against Western Illinois after several games of spot duty. In 17 minutes of play, Ilija went 3-of-4 from the floor (including a three!), grabbed three rebounds, and tallied up four assists. That last stat was particularly impressive as we had yet to see much of the big man's passing ability. Ilija played sparingly against IUPUI and had a limited impact while picking up three fouls.

Non-Keith Benson Stud Of The Week: Reggie Hamilton
A weekly shoutout to the best Golden Grizzly not named Keith Benson.
While Reggie Hamilton had a strong scoring week (43 total points on 52% shooting), his best statistic was his assist-to-turnover ratio. After struggling in this department last week, the junior guard tallied 10 assists to 5 turnovers. While there is still room for him to improve, there's no mistaking that's one of his better performances as of late. Moreover, Hamilton, once again, showcased his clutch play in the waning minutes against IUPUI. After sitting for much of the final quarter of the game, he came in and hit a monster three-pointer that cut the Jaguar lead to four points with 1:56 remaining. On Oakland's next possession, Reggie got to the free throw line. After hitting the first (and cutting the IUPUI lead to three), he missed the second but came out of nowhere to grab the ball out of the hands of the rebounder. Reggie made a strong move to the hoop, but IUPUI's Christian Siakam found a way to get set in front of him and drew the offensive charge with 1:17 remaining. It was a heartbreaking call, particularly considering how much heart Hamilton showed in getting the ball back after missing that free throw. That's a dude who hates losing, and that's a trait that should carry this team in Sioux Falls.

Top Play Of The Week
One of my favorite developments during the conference season has been seeing Drew Valentine become a defensive stopper. It seems that he gets one of these plays in every game nowadays where he'll intercept a pass on the perimeter and take it down for a fastbreak dunk. While he didn't get the dunk on WIU, the set-up surely looked familiar:
Valentine also picked the pocket of Alex Young against IUPUI, but Young, being the athlete that he is, was able to chase down Drew to disrupt the shot attempt.

What's Next?
Oakland has just one game this week, but as with every conference game, it's an important match-up. IPFW comes to Rochester for an early tip on Saturday. The Mastodons are no longer in second place but figure to give Oakland their best shot in order to gain some traction in the standings. The game will also be televised on Fox Sports Detroit!

Sunday, January 30, 2011

The Gameplan's Weekly Recap: ORU/Centenary

The Big Picture
The Golden Grizzlies continued their dominance in Summit League play this week with two home victories. On Thursday, the team took down rival Oral Roberts to sweep the season series. In this game we saw Oakland get out to a lead on the backs of Keith Benson and Will Hudson, but it was Reggie Hamilton who sealed the victory late in the second half despite playing questionably earlier in the game. It says a lot about a team and its leadership when any number of players can "take over" to will the squad to a win. Most expected Oakland to blowout Centenary, but the Gents hung tight in the first half. The Golden Grizzlies clamped down on defense in the second half and won it going away in front of a rabid Homecoming crowd. With just three home games left this season, hopefully all of those who witnessed OU over the last few games will be back to pack the O'rena in February.

Oakland's Clutch Junior
With just over four minutes left in the Oakland-Oral Roberts battle, the score was tied at 68. Although Oakland had wrestled the lead from ORU, the Golden Eagles would not go away, and a great three-point play by Dominique Morrison finally evened the game. It looked like this one would go down to the wire just like last year's match, but then Reggie Hamilton went into clutch mode. The junior transfer has done some dazzling things in games this season to prove that he is the one player on this squad who can create his own shot above all others. Prior to these waning minutes, Hamilton was having an up-and-down game; for every assist he had, he would have a turnover on the next possession. But as Coach Kampe described after the game, he more or less lit a fire in Hamilton during a timeout in the stretch run, and Hamilton responded with some fire of his own.

From that four minute mark until the end of the game, Hamilton had an impact on almost every single possession in a variety of different ways:
  • He buried two three-pointers, one wide open from a great pass by Drew Valentine to spark the run and another that was contested with a minute left in the game.
  • On the defensive end, Benson's block led to a fastbreak opportunity where Hamilton's court vision allowed him to make a pass from half-court to Valentine who subsequently got the basket and the foul.
  • In a game where Hamilton had six steals, none were more important than when he picked Warren Niles' pocket, leading to a fastbreak lay-up.
  • Finally, Reggie drilled five of six free throws in the final 40 seconds of the game.
He had one defensive lapse when his man, Ken Holdman, hit a corner three to make the game closer than it really was, but Reggie subsequently knocked down four straight free throws to seal the game. In sum, he got it done at the stripe, beyond the arc, on the drive, through his defense, and with his passing. He's still rather turnover prone, but at the end of a game, there is no one on this team who has proven he can do more things with the ball in his hands than Reggie Hamilton. That's the kind of player who will come in handy in March.

Homecoming Crowds
The game on Saturday marked Oakland's third annual Homecoming, an event typically held during the last week of January or first week of February (depending on how the conference schedule shakes out). It has largely been a successful promotion that has triggered very large attendance figures for the O'rena. Here they are for the past three seasons:

Year 1 (2/7/09): 3,855 (opponent: Centenary)
Year 2 (2/6/10): 4,034 (opponent: Oral Roberts)
Year 3 (1/29/11): 3,675 (opponent: Centenary)

It's hard to say definitively whether or not the slight decrease in attendance this year was due to lack of a quality opponent or something else. The weekends don't exactly line-up, and then there's always the "it's the economy" line. Still, 3,675 is a great number for a game against a team that won't even be in Division I next season. One area that looked to be unaffected by the year was the student section! They looked like a formidable bunch on this evening, furthering a tradition several years in the making. Here's to hoping that the Homecoming crowds continue to grow with each year.
The Stag?
In one of the more interesting reads of the season, Paul Kampe of The Oakland Press was able to recount the rise of Keith Benson at Oakland University. (Seriously, read it). The feature contains a lot of great insights into how Benson worked his way into the player he has become today from the center himself, Coach Kampe, and even his high school coach. In reading the piece, I found one of the small details at the beginning of the article about Kito's recruitment to be rather interesting. The article notes that Benson was actually on his way to play at Fairfield University, a Division I program out of the MAAC. Fortunately for OU fans, that never came to fruition, but can you imagine?
Somewhere in an alternate universe, perhaps things end up working out in Fairfield's favor. Assuming the team decides to redshirt Kito in 2006-07, that would leave him as a senior star on a Fairfield team that is currently 9-1 in MAAC play. But would he have ever been "discovered" while buried in the northeast in a league that has been dominated by another program (Siena) over the past four years? Would he be drawing dozens of NBA scouts to Connecticut to watch Stags games over those of the Huskies? Does he even lead the MAAC in rebounding, or does that honor stick with Ryan Rossiter? So many "could ofs" exist in this alternate realty, but the only realty that matters is that Benson chose to come to Oakland, a place where he has helped to build a "monster" of a program.

Bonus Kito!
For the second straight week we've seen Benson inflict some fastbreak damage on opposing teams. Last week, he ran the ball up the court after a devastating block which led to a Drew Valentine three-pointer. Against Oral Roberts, Kito again runs the ball up but this time he got the basket on an alley-oop pass from Travis Bader. You can check it out here. Seriously, how many other 6'11" centers out there can run the court like Benson? Amazing, every time.

"Free Ilija" Watch
Ilija did his best in limited time this week, notching four total rebounds between the two games. He missed two free throws against Centenary that could have beefed up his points total, but he did also have two assists in helping to get his teammates involved. Perhaps most importantly, Ilija did not have a single foul in two games this week.

Non-Keith Benson Stud Of The Week: Travis Bader
A weekly shoutout to the best Golden Grizzly not named Keith Benson.
Since conference play resumed in earnest at the end of December, Travis Bader is averaging a solid 14.6 points per game. While most of his points do come from beyond the arc, we've seen the redshirt freshman become involved in other aspects of the game as his playing time has grown over the last month. In addition to his eight three-pointers against ORU and Centenary, Bader accumulated seven rebounds, four assists to zero turnovers, and four steals - including this stellar one that led to a fastbreak lay-up. Over the course of the conference season, the shooting guard's confidence has grown, and he's hit a number of clutch shots as a result. Oh, and the dude is stone cold...



Top Play Of The Week
The biggest plays of the week, or at least the ones that got the crowd the most amped, came on transition buckets against Oral Roberts. This one, though, was unexpected: Will Hudson rushes to the perimeter to get a hand in the face of the shooting Warren Niles and somehow manages to stuff Niles. The block itself was magnificent, but watch what happens after:


What's Next?
The team will hit the road for games at Western Illinois and IUPUI. The former is against a depleted team that has won just two conference games all season, while the latter is versus the last team to beat Oakland in a conference game. Neither will be taken lightly, but the game to watch is definitely the one against the Jaguars. Not only are the Jags competing for that second seed, but they'll also be playing in front of a larger crowd at Conseco Fieldhouse, the home of the Indiana Pacers.

Monday, January 24, 2011

The Gameplan's Weekly Recap: SDSU/NDSU


The Big Picture
The Golden Grizzlies survived the treacherous Dakotas trip to the tune of two wins to zero losses. It's the second year in a row that the team swept through the toughest road trip in conference play. By winning both games, the program is now the official holder of the consecutive wins streak in conference play (17), dating back to last season. For this season, it means Oakland has beaten every conference foe at least once at the half-way mark of Summit League play. Teams will be gunning for OU in this second half, hopeful that they can correct their deficiencies from the first run through to top the beasts from Rochester before all is said and done.

Chairmen Of The Boards
Throughout the season, Oakland has consistently been the top rebounding team in The Summit League and one of the best in the country. In fact, as of this posting, the team's 36.8 rebounds per game rank 21st and its 54.6% rebounding percentage 48th in all of Division I. Whether you dig rebounding margins or rates, the fact remains that this team can board with the best in the country. However, for the first time in conference play this season, Oakland was out-rebounded in the match with North Dakota State on Saturday. Margins can tell us one part of the story, but rebounding rate more accurately paints the rebounding picture and allows us to make comparisons from one game to the next. Let's take a look at how Oakland has fared by this measure in conference games:
As is evident, Oakland's board dominance holds up in team rebounding rate as well. However, it's also worth noting just how out of character the performance was against North Dakota State. At the end of the game, the Golden Grizzlies still scored more points than the Bison which is all that mattered. But it is worth keeping an eye on for when the two teams have a rematch at the O'rena in late February.

All About Benson
Despite the frigid temperatures, Oakland's Keith Benson was hot on this road trip. He had 20+ points and 10+ rebounds in back-to-back games for the first time all season, and it was his first back-to-back double-double since the Michigan State and Tennessee games in December. Benson was given a little more room than usual as SDSU and NDSU did not always send an extra man when he got the ball; instead there were some possessions where Jordan Dykstra (SDSU) and Marshall Bjorklund (NDSU), both freshman, were given a chance to be physical with the OU senior. Kito responded well and had several great post-ups while staying active on the glass. His more dominating performance came against the Jackrabbits where he tied his season high in field goal attempts (17) while connecting on a season high 12 made field goals. With more touches, Benson was able to get a number of good looks in the paint. For example:
In frame 1, we see Kito establishing position in the key against Dykstra, awaiting a pass from Reggie Hamilton. Once he gets the ball in frame 2, it looks like he might have had a more direct path at the basket by spinning around his defender toward the basket, but he puts the ball on the floor and spins to his right in frame 3 where Dykstra is still the lone defender. By frame 4, it's clear Kito is going to muscle up a shot over Dykstra and the oncoming help, something he does successfully here.

In another situation, the attention drawn to Benson results in a made bucket for Will Hudson.
In this scene, Benson is running down the court and calling for a pass from Larry Wright. In frame 2, Wright is about to dish it to Benson on the elbow. Once he receives the pass, Benson has a few options but his go-to move in such a position has been to spot up for a jumper (more on this in a minute). However, as we see in frame 3, Benson makes a move toward the basket and draws Hudson's defender in the process. Kito, the ever-evolving passer, spots the deficiency right away and makes a nice dish to Hudson who completes the dunk in frame 4.

Against North Dakota State, Benson was far more likely to shoot the aforementioned mid-range jumper. He shot five long two-pointers, which to many observers is the worst shot in basketball. And his numbers from the two games more or less confirm this notion. Here's a breakdown of his field goal makes and attempts from the two games:
Before dissecting these figures, please note that tracking the distance of shots is somewhat subjective as there's not necessarily a way to take a tape measure from the player's position to the hoop. Generally, though, I think the categorizations hold up when comparing to the tape. One note is that a shot was counted as a jumper if it was taken in the key but outside of 5 feet or so from the basket (so, for example, from around the free throw line). So in looking at the table, we can see that Kito was incredibly efficient in post-up situations or when he was the recipient of a quick pass into the paint. Together, he hit 18 of his 21 attempts in this area for a total of 85.7%. Again, the closer one gets to the basket, the expected shooting percentage is higher, but Benson's figures are rather extraordinary, especially when taking a look at how he got a number of these baskets. On the flipside, he went just 2 of 11 (18.2%) on jumpers outside of this area, including 1 of 5 on those long twos against NDSU (of note is that one of his jumpers was cited as a three-point attempt but it certainly looked to be well within the arc). Benson is capable of knocking down those shots, so perhaps this was the wrong swing of games to highlight. Either way, I think most would agree he's much more efficient when he limits his jumpers to around three or four (like he did against SDSU) than eight or more.

On the defensive end, Benson was just as dominant as usual. In the box score, we see that he had eight blocks and three steals over the weekend. While Marshall Bjorklund did have a career night against the Oakland frontcourt, there were several plays where it looked like Benson was being extra careful on him in the second half as he was playing with three fouls early on. Still, one of the best plays of the game came on a Benson block that led to this:



What is especially mesmerizing about this play in particular is that Benson blocks the oncoming opponent, gets the ball, takes it up the court like a guard, and has the presence of mind to dish it to a streaking Drew Valentine who drains the three. If you keep watching post-shot attempt, you can see Benson running toward the basket for the potential rebound. That is a game-changing play, and one that makes him the most valuable player in the conference.

The Gray Uniform Phenomenon
Since Oakland debuted its gray uniforms in the opening game of the season, there have been other teams popping up around the country embracing the color as well. The resurgent Colorado Buffaloes have been doing the gray look since the beginning of last season, proving that a black and gold school can make the achromatic look good (officially, CU's version is listed as silver). On the other hand, Valparaiso showed us all that gold on gray is, well, see for yourself:
Kudos to Oakland for minimizing the gold as that's clearly something Valpo overlooked or misjudged in its own design. While I wasn't initially stoked about adding gray to the Oakland color scheme, the alternate jerseys have grown on me. I'm glad that they got some gray/silver undershirts for the NDSU game as they had previously worn white which detracted from the allure of the jerseys just a bit. Whatever the case, Oakland's gray uniforms have definitely spruced up the program's identity, and it's safe to say that they rank among the best executed gray alternates.

"Free Ilija" Watch
The Serbian Assassin had just two points and two rebounds in 19 total minutes this week. As the season has played on, Coach Kampe's rotation seems to be getting even tighter. Injuries are partly to explain for that, but it's looking more and more like the current starting five plus Larry Wright are the fellas who will be getting most of the time the rest of the way.

Non-Keith Benson Stud Of The Week: Larry Wright
A weekly shoutout to the best Golden Grizzly not named Keith Benson.
Larry Wright was channeling his mid-December self on Saturday night against North Dakota State. While he didn't have a great game against SDSU on Thursday, he really was the guy who ignited Oakland in the second half against NDSU. He scored 20 points in 24 minutes of play, including a stellar 4 of 4 mark from beyond the arc. It was great to see Larry looking like he was at 100% again. Here's a clip of all of his makes from Saturday night. If you listen closely, you won't hear too much rim on those buckets.



Top Play Of The Week
There were a few contenders this week. Larry Wright, in addition to the highlight reel above, had a twisting and turning drive against South Dakota State that showed his ankle woes are behind him (animated .gif). Likewise, Travis Bader had a rare drive to the hoop that showed off some of his non-three-point shooting potential (animated .gif). However, Drew Valentine's emergence as a defensive stopper has been a highlight of this conference season. In both games this week, he had a perimeter steal that led to a fastbreak dunk.
Bonus plays! Watch Ryan Bass fill the bucket on three separate occasions against NDSU. And here's Kito dominating NDSU's Mike Felt on two different possessions.

What's Next?
It's homecoming week for Golden Grizzlies fans this week, highlighting by the men's and women's basketball games on Saturday against Centenary. However, the big game of the week is on Thursday when Oakland welcomes Oral Roberts to Rochester. These two teams always have battles. Hopefully the O'rena will be jam-packed for this annual rivalry game. Not only does the game have historical meaning, but it could also have a major impact on the conference standings as ORU is currently in a three-way tie for second place and will be looking to separate itself.