Championship Game Preview: Oakland vs. Oral Roberts

Summit League Tournament Championship

(1) Oakland vs. (2) Oral Roberts

Tuesday, March 8, 2011 | 9:00pm EST

Watch: ESPN2 / ESPN3.com

Radio: WDFN / WXOU

Oakland advanced to its third straight conference tournament championship game with a win last night over South Dakota State. The team starting firing early and often on its way to building a nice lead that sequestered any home court advantage for the Jacks. Now, just as it has been every year in Sioux Falls, Oakland remains as one of two teams to battle for the NCAA Tournament bid. The Golden Grizzlies will look to stay poised and focused in an effort to win the tournament crown for a second straight year. Oral Roberts, which advanced after taking care of business over IUPUI, will seek its first NCAA bid since 2007-08. The national television audience will be treated to a great game from the conference's most formidable foes.

If history tells us anything, it's that this will be a close game that goes down-to-the-wire. Oakland and Oral Roberts have a long history of intense battles, and those have only been magnified under the bright lights of the league tournament. In championship games, each school has exactly one win over the other. Oakland's came in 2005 by a one-point margin, and Oral Robert's was in 2007 by a final score of 71-67. In all likelihood, then, it's reasonable to think this one could be just as close. So if the game is on the line, which players are most likely to have the ball in their hands, and which of those might be the best options? For that, we turn to a clutch gauge.

There may very well be established measures of a player's "clutchness," but given the short turnaround between games, I was not able to fully look into this area. So for the time being, I've concocted a distribution I'm calling the clutch gauge. First, I define the clutch time as under three minutes left in the game, and for the purposes of this project, the score must have been within eight points, either way. If the team was down by eight points, then we would assume those players on the court would be most likely to try to bring the team within reach. Likewise, if the team is up eight points at that point in time, there is still enough time left for possessions to be valued. I also only use conference games to ensure a somewhat balanced schedule (ORU had 11 such games, and OU had 9). So with the basics defined, let's look at ORU's clutch distribution:

So we measure a player's contribution in this time frame by "Points Per Weighted Shot," which basically tells us how many points a player scored given the amount of shots he took (with free throws "weighted" accordingly). An average PPWS in The Summit League is about 1.09; essentially, the higher, the better. To ensure that a player isn't benefiting from simply taking one shot that he made, the "Percentage of Shots" column shows us the percentage of shots accounted for by that player. For ORU, when the game is close and under three minutes, we can reliably say that Dominique Morrison, Damen Bell-Holter, and Warren Niles will most often be taking shots. DBH seems to account for a lot of the team's free throws at this point in the game, so he gets a healthy boost. However, DoMo and Niles are the true shot creators here. More specifically, Niles might be the more dangerous of the two in the clutch. He's perfect on his free throws in this sample, and he's shooting about 62% on his three-pointers. As a result, he has a rather astronomical PPWS mark. Basically, if the game is in the final minutes and Niles is spotting up for a three, there is reason to be concerned as OU fans!

To a lesser degree, one must keep an eye on Ken Holdman. If he gets the ball to score, which he rarely does in these situations, he has at least proven effective. But more often than not, it's going to be Morrison or Niles, with a slight edge to Niles as the guy who can put the most points up with the least amount of shots. Now, to Oakland.

As a reminder, these numbers are developed through conference games only, so for Oakland it might not tell the whole story since a few of the team's closer games came in November and December. Still, there were enough league games where the Grizzlies had to "do work" to maintain a late lead for this to be useful. To no one's surprise, Reggie Hamilton proves to be the most clutch player on the team. Not only does he take a high percentage of the team's shots in the waning minutes, but he also connects on them, producing 1.68 PPWS. For Hamilton, that's largely a result of his accuracy at the free throw line (18 of 22 in these situations). Larry Wright and Keith Benson are next in order. Wright gets a major bump from some of the late threes he hit at North Dakota State. Benson doesn't look quite as strong due to missed free throws (9 of 14). Travis Bader has a great PPWS mark on the season, a reflection of his role as a three-point specialist, but he doesn't fair as well here simply due to a lack of sample size (meaning he hasn't often been called upon in the final minutes thus far). Finally, Will Hudson and Drew Valentine have both proven reliable with limited opportunities. In particular, Valentine's number suggests he has been ready to execute when his number is called in the final three minutes of tight games.

At the very least, these numbers can give us an idea of which players have proven to be the most clutch in close league games this season. It will be neat to monitor the roles of the players on the court in the final minutes if the score is indeed close.

Key Match-Up

Will Hudson vs. Steven Roundtree

Though Will Hudson has had a number of primetime performances this season, his two outings against Oral Roberts perhaps shine the brightest. Against his team's biggest rival, the senior averaged a stellar 21 points and 9.5 rebounds per contest, in part accomplished by going a combined 18-0f-21 from the field. Hudson's always been a high-percentage scorer, but 86% in the biggest of games is otherworldly, especially when one also considers the ORU frontcourt has played fairly strong all season. Sophomore Damen Bell-Holter and freshman Steven Roundtree had great years as full-time players for the first time. Roundtree, an athletic though stringy forward, held his own against Oakland the first time around, though in both games he was prone to foul trouble. Even so, he made his contribution on the offensive glass, as he often has done this year, and showed off glimpses of potential both on the block and off the dribble. In past meetings, the experience and toughness of Hudson won out, but both Roundtree and Bell-Holter have played well down the stretch.

Oral Roberts Player To Watch: Dominique Morrison

In his post game interview last night, Coach Scott Sutton brought up the fact that Dominique Morrison, who came to ORU after the school's string of NCAA Tournament appearances, had yet to achieve his ultimate goal of winning the conference tournament. Morrison, we can expect, is hungry to lead the Golden Eagles back to the Big Dance, and he gets a shot at doing so against a team he has played well against this season. In fairness to the Grizzlies, Morrison plays well against just about every team, but for the first time we get to see how the junior responds with an automatic bid on the line. He'll surely keep Oakland's defenders busy.

Oakland Player To Watch: Keith Benson

As with Morrison, Oakland's Keith Benson is the face of his team. He's the star, the two-time first team player, and the most likely to end up making big bucks playing this game. Benson has had a strong tournament so far and notable performances against ORU this year alongside Will Hudson in the frontcourt. Kito also showcased his stamina in those two previous matches by logging a full 40 minutes of playing time in each. History shows us that Benson has come out to work in championship games, particularly on the glass (15.5 rebounds/game) and through his shot-blocking (4.5 blocks/game), and it was also Kito who had the go-ahead dunk against NDSU before Ben Woodside ruined everything in 2009. Moreover, who can forget the two incredible defensive stops he had late in the championship game against IUPUI last season? He got the best of Alex Young with just under three minutes left, and then a minute later he pounded a shot attempt by Billy Pettiford that led to a face-melting and-1 lay-up by Derick Nelson. The game was over at that point. I can only hope we are lucky enough to watch another similar performance from the Player of the Year this time around.

As noted earlier in the post, the teams have met twice in the conference tournament. Oakland beat Oral Roberts as a seven seed in the 2005 tournament on a last-second shot by Pierre Dukes. ORU bested OU two years later as a part of the team's three-year reign as overlords of The Summit League's automatic bid.

Pre-Game Linkage

Finally, check out the Golden Grizzly Hoops forum where fans have been posting links and thoughts to everything they can find about Oakland and the tournament all week.

The Gameplan's Semifinal Recap: SDSU

True to the form of their previous meetings, the semifinal game between Oakland and South Dakota State was an offensive juggernaut where a lot of points were scored. Oakland got out to a hot start in the opening minutes and never looked back, eventually winning by a score of 110-90. Though SDSU received large contributions from its underclassmen - notably Nate Wolters, Jordan Dykstra, and Chad White - Oakland's experience, hunger, and confidence proved to be the difference, allowing the Golden Grizzlies to dominant most facets of the match. For more on how the game went down and reaction to it from the coaches and players, check out the game stories from Paul Kampe of The Oakland Press here and Dan Fenner of The Oakland Post here. And post-game press conference video from the conference is here, plus a WXOU interview with Drew Valentine here.

Superlatives

Where does one start with a performance like the one the Golden Grizzlies turned in on Monday evening? Scoring 110 points in a tournament game? The stunning production of sophomore Drew Valentine? The 57% three-point shooting? Keith Benson's well-rounded game? Travis Bader's squandering of SDSU's Clint Sargent? The ridiculous turnover rate? Or how about ESPN's Andy Katz chiming in about his respect for all things Oakland? Well, as has often been the case on this blog, let's first turn to Oakland's offensive efficiency.

If you read the preview for this game, you'll remember the table included with the possession-based offensive efficiency data. In two meetings, Oakland had scored 0.13 more points per possession than its conference season average on SDSU's defense, while SDSU managed to go for just 0.04 more points per trip than its own average on Oakland's defense. In the semifinal game, SDSU managed to boost this to 0.06, but it allowed Oakland to go for 0.31 more points per possession than its season average! It was, simply put, an absolute drubbing. Consider that Oakland's 1.50 points scored per possession was not only a season-high for the team, but it also ranked second in the entire nation out of ALL games played between Division I teams this season. Here's the top five, according to BBState.com:

It's interesting that the top three performances all happened in the past three days. Syracuse's is probably a bit misleading given the fact that Depaul is a cellar dweller in the Big East, but the drubbings put forth by Ohio State and Oakland were against fairly solid teams from their respective conferences. It's been no secret that Oakland's offense has been great, but for most of the season that has been the case despite the team's tendency to turn the ball over. The team has improved in that department over the year, but one of the reasons it was so efficient last night was because of its superb turnover rate. On this night we were able to see just how explosive Oakland can be sans those turnovers. To put the team's 5.5% turnover rate in perspective, consider the following:

• 1. Oaklands 5.5% turnover rate against SDSU was a team best out of all Summit League teams, besting the next best by nearly a full percentage point (interesting: two of the top five were by SDSU against Oakland in the regular season).
• 2. Oakland's next best turnover rate all season was 10.8% against Southern, a game which still stands as Oakland's most dominating performance of the season (taking into account both sides of the ball).

Astouding, really.

In other statistical superlatives, the team's 57.7% field goal shooting was its third best shooting performance of the year, and its 57.1% shooting from beyond the arc was second only to the home game against IUPUI. The 22 team assists mark was tied with several other games as its third best output of the season. Games like this only come around so often, and for Oakland, it certainly came at the right time. Talk about an "A game."

The Tournament Breakout Of Drew Valentine

On a night when all of Oakland's starters scored at least 12 points and contributed so much more in other numerical categories, there was no one with a more beefy line that sophomore Drew Valentine. The forward went off for 24 points by going 7-of-8 on his two-pointers, 3-of-5 on his three-point shots, and 1-of-1 from the free throw line. Drew also chipped in a team-high 11 rebounds, three of which came on the offensive glass. But no discussion of his offensive game would be appropriate without a look at his signature move, which he completed just minutes into the game:

We've seen Valentine execute that same play against so many different Summit League teams this season, so it was a great way for him to get going in this game. From there, he proceeded to get things done in transition, off the dribble, via tip-ins from offensive boards, and the standard lay-up. Here was what his shot chart looked like for the game, where the light blue lines represent drives, blue circles as makes, and white circles as misses. The "L" is for layup, "D" for dunk, and "3" for three-pointers.

Unfortunately, the shot chart doesn't capture well the intangibles Valentine demonstrated during the game. He finished at the rim like his more seasoned counterparts, and his determination on the boards was a pleasure to see. In his post game interview with WXOU's Bryan Everson, Valentine mentioned that he hasn't needed to be a featured scoring option this year with all of the great scorers on his team, but he made it clear that he can indeed be such a player when it's necessary. There's no doubting that sentiment now after this performance, which was all sorts of clutch. Like Blake Cushinberry's semifinal game last year, this is the kind of output that widens the eyes of Grizzlies fans. There's no telling what kind of ceiling the still young Drew Valentine has ahead of him, but if he makes plays like the one below, it must be pretty high.

How About Bader?

Travis Bader continues to exude the utmost confidence in his abilities despite the fact he's still just a redshirt freshman. At one point during the telecast, the commentators brought up the question of who they'd rather have in a game of H.O.R.S.E.: Bader or SDSU's Nate Wolters. One guy responded with Wolters because he had not seen Bader showoff much creativity. Within 30 seconds of that brief discussion, Bader made a winding move to the basket off the dribble that led to a nice two-point bucket. The commentators immediately gave credit to Bader for proving them wrong. What they didn't know was that it was a fairly new play for Oakland's starting shooting guard. Truth is, we haven't seen him attempt many shots from inside the arc like that. But in a key game, he again came through. He also came through from downtown, hitting four of his seven shot attempts. But hey, what's new in that regard? Well, how about a deeeep three that rivals Jimmer Fredette territory:

And Then There's That One Guy

Despite Oakland's balanced attack thus far, it was Reggie Hamilton and Drew Valentine who proved most captivating in these first two tournament games. Meanwhile, Oakland's center has - almost quietly - put together two very strong performances thus far. Fitting for a senior Player of the Year. What I enjoyed most about Benson's contributions against SDSU was his aggressive play on the offensive boards. It's not often that Kito has just as many offensive as defensive boards, but he did just that on Monday night. He was hitting jumpers and going up hard against SDSU's weaker frontline. And he completed a couple very nice passes that lead to easy baskets for his teammates. His most exciting play, though, came on an alley-oop pass where he not only connected, but also posterized Jordan Dykstra in the process:

What's Next?
The Golden Grizzlies are set to face off against Oral Roberts on Tuesday night at 9:00pm EST. The game will air live on ESPN2. The national television audience will get a chance to see a great game between the league's top teams and programs, and an NCAA Tournament bid is on the line.

Semifinal Preview: Oakland vs. South Dakota State

Summit League Tournament Semifinal

(1) Oakland vs. (5) South Dakota State

Monday, March 7, 2011 | 7:00pm EST

Watch: Fox Sports Detroit / ESPN3.com / Summit TV ($)

Radio: WDFN / WXOU

For the second straight season, Oakland had a day off for the Sunday quarterfinal games while it awaited the winner of a South Dakota State-IPFW match. This year, however, the Jackrabbits were able to get the best of the Mastodons to advance to the semifinals. On Monday night, the league's two most explosive offenses will battle for the third time this season. The Golden Grizzlies will look to build on their impressive win over Southern Utah that featured sound offensive execution, great defensive play, and steady ball-control. The Jackrabbits will try to harbor the greatness that was their first half performance against IPFW as they attempt to usurp the seasoned squad from Michigan.

Throughout the season, South Dakota State's calling card has been its offense. While the team gets major contributions from guard Nate Wolters off the dribble, it's been most deadly from beyond the arc. At present, the Jacks are currently shooting 41.3% from downtown, good for fifth in the nation. And that's not inflated from a lack of sample size: a full 36% of the team's shots come from three-point land. Pair such shooting with an above average offensive rebounding pedigree and a ludicrous turnover rate (the team turns it over on just 14.4% of its possessions, second in the nation right now) and it's no longer a mystery as to how this team has been so explosive offensively.

Oakland is no slouch with the ball either. OU can get it done from the perimeter (40.1% in conference games), but it's bread and better is in the paint. The team is second in the country in two-point field goal percentage (55.6%) and far and away first in the conference. While the Golden Grizzlies are a bit more turnover prone than the Jacks, they're a superior team on the offensive glass and when it comes to drawing trips to the foul line. So while the two teams accomplish their offensive efficiency in different ways, the bottom line is they're both among the best in the country. It's no surprise, then, that the two games they've played thus far have been offensively slanted.

The table presents scoring data in both traditional points and points on a per-possession basis, the latter of which adjusts for pace of the game. The "rank" column shows where that particular possession-based offensive performance ranked for the team for the entire season, excluding non-DI games. Two of Oakland's top five offensive performances came against South Dakota State, and the team needed every one of those points as SDSU scored at an impressive clip against Oakland. But as SDSU's rank shows, these formidable scoring outputs barely cracked its own top ten. One might wonder, then, how the team ended up with the fifth seed in the conference tournament. The answer lies on the other side of the ball. In conference play, Oakland allowed just 1.00 points per possession on average while SDSU gave up 1.08 points per trip.

The coaches will say that only one stat matters in this regard, and that is the one marked down in the win or loss column. And while it is true that Oakland won both games, these stats do tell part of the story as to why. Consider that even though each team has an elite offense, Oakland scored over 0.13 more points than its average (1.19) on SDSU's defense, while SDSU managed just 0.04 over its own average (1.17) on Oakland's defense. Both teams will need their elite offense if they want to win on Monday evening, but if it goes like the last two meetings, it might be more about which team's defense forces a more "average" performance from the opponent.

Inevitably, a lot of the build-up to this game has been, and will continue to be, about the inherent advantage South Dakota State has with the tournament being held in Sioux Falls. I experienced that advantage first-hand at Sioux Falls Arena last year during the team's quarterfinal game against IPFW. When the fans stood for the fight song at the beginning of the game, I got chills. It was amazing to see that many people embracing a Summit League squad, even if they were all there before the school was even in the conference. But a funny thing happened. The Jacks dropped that game, just like they had a year before to Oakland in the semifinals (but not before upsetting Oral Roberts in the quarters). No one will doubt that this year's team is much better suited to win than the previous two versions, and it's possible the home crowd will be advantageous as the Jacks try to upset Oakland. But if it does, it will only be that way in the minds of the fans and the people writing stories about the game.

This Oakland team is well-equipped to handle just about any crowd or setting in the nation. The non-conference schedule from this year speaks for itself, as does the team's win at Thompson-Boling Arena where Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl had been very close to unbeatable. If I sound like a homer right now, well, that's probably right on. But the history backs up those sentiments. Instead of focusing on a perceived home court advantage, I would instead urge the conversation to shift toward one of simply appreciating the Jacks fanbase this evening. Oral Roberts radio man Geoff Haxton tweeted a video shortly after yesterday's game that showcases the crowd eruption after Nate Wolters buried a key three-pointer:

It's awesome, quite simply. The conference is lucky to have such a passionate fanbase attached to one of its member schools, and it's a pleasure to see it on display every March in Sioux Falls. So appreciate it, learn from it, and be in awe of it. If it gives the SDSU team a lift, so be it. But don't expect it to phase this experienced Oakland bunch.

Key Match-Up

Drew Valentine vs. Griffan Callahan

If the "names" in this game end up achieving their typical levels of output, then one thing to keep an eye on is team depth. Which team will have guys step up who might not otherwise get the spotlight? In Oakland's Drew Valentine and SDSU's Griffan Callahan, we have two players with such potential. Though both have been regular starters and contributors, they don't get as many of the headlines. Their output may vary from game-to-game, but most of the time you know what you are getting from these two individuals. They share a similar build, and they're both very capable three-point shooters who do such work sneakily alongside noted distance threats Clint Sargent and Travis Bader. From an Oakland standpoint, Valentine has the edge on Callahan with his inside game and rebounding ability. Callahan, however, is the more careful player as he rarely turns the ball over. Valentine vs. Callahan might not be a match-up we'll see a ton of during the game (especially since SDSU uses a starting line-up that has four guys at or near 6'4"), but this pair comprises two players who could come up with a surprise performance.

South Dakota State Player To Watch: Dale Moss

Dale Moss, a senior guard for South Dakota State, has had a fairly unassuming career. He's never been a big box score guy, but he's always had a way of energizing his team with hustle plays and big dunks. In the numbers department, he has had his best season as a senior, serving as one of the team's better offensive rebounders and high-percentage scorers. But what he did last night against IPFW was some next level stuff. Moss went 7 of 8 from the field; the lone miss was a three-pointer. He shot a season-high 12 free throw attempts and connected on seven of them. Combined, he accumulated 21 points to go along with nine rebounds and two blocks. The dude went off! Moss has never really had a night quite like that, so there's no telling how he'll follow up against Oakland. But it's worth noting that the veteran was playing out of his mind on a night when his team needed it the most.

Oakland Player To Watch: Larry Wright

In the quarterfinal preview, I pegged Reggie Hamilton as the guy I was most excited to monitor because it was his first time leading Oakland in an elimination game. True to form, Hamilton killed it. While he looks like he can't be stopped right now, one player I am hoping to see do a lot of stopping is Larry Wright. The senior guard's defensive ability has proven to be an asset for Oakland in several key instances this year, and the team will need another solid contribution in this game. Wright has the length and quickness to keep up with Nate Wolters, the main offensive force for SDSU. In two games against Oakland this year, Wolters has gotten his points, but he's largely been a volume shooter in those contests (17 of 44 in those games). While Wright won't exclusively guard Wolters, one would expect him to see some time defending him and perhaps Clint Sargent as well. Hopefully he and the rest of the Grizzlies defenders can force them both into tough, contested shots.

According to the StatSheet.com archives, Oakland is 8-1 all-time against South Dakota State. The lone setback for OU came at Frost Arena during the 2008-09 season. Since then, the Golden Grizzlies have won five straight over the Jackrabbits. The two squads met in the semifinals of the 2009 conference tournament where Oakland, the two seed, won over SDSU, the seven seed, by a score of 74-56. That was the lone tournament game between the two schools.

Since Oakland first appeared in a Summit League conference tournament in 2001-02, there have been seven games pitting the one seed against the five seed. The one seed is 7-0 in that time span.

Pre-Game Linkage

The Oakland Press has a preview of semifinal action here. A Detroit Free Press preview with Coach Kampe's thoughts on attaining greatness here. And a quick snapshot of the game from the Detroit News is available here. Also stay tuned to the tournament section of the Sioux Falls Argus Leader website for game coverage, including a live video preview of the semifinals to start the evening.

Finally, you can always check out the Golden Grizzly Hoops forum where fans have been posting links and thoughts to everything they can find about Oakland and the tournament all week.

The Gameplan's Quarterfinal Recap: SUU

Oakland won its quarterfinal game against Southern Utah last evening by a score of 82-66. Similarly to the last game between these two squads, Oakland built a solid lead in the last two minutes of the first half before pulling away during the second half. For now, the Golden Grizzlies advance and await for their next opponent to be determined at the conclusion of tonight's SDSU-IPFW tilt. For a full recap of last night's game, you can check out game stories from a number of sources, including The Oakland Press, The Oakland Post, and the Detroit Free Press. Additionally, the conference provided video of the post-game press conference here, and WXOU also has its own post-game interview with Coach Kampe available here. Great coverage, all around!

Defensive Score Sheet

Last night's quarterfinal game was a much more efficient affair than the regular season closer between Oakland and Southern Utah a week ago in Cedar City. Both teams scored well above last week's rate, despite the fact the score was nearly the same. As a result, the defensive score sheet from this game was a bit less extreme than last week's edition. For a brief introduction to the concept of a defensive score sheet, check out the debut post from Friday. Now we'll dive right into the charts, starting with Oakland.

When comparing charts between games, one might wonder why this week's individual defensive ratings are higher. This is due to the fact that individual defensive ratings are calculated in part from the team defensive rating. The tournament game featured a much more average defensive performance by Oakland, on a per-possession base, than the last one which was on the extreme low end (note that OU's "average" defensive output is tops in the league - so this is a good thing). As a result, the numbers look higher, when indeed they are still quite strong. The column that really stands out to me is that of Percent of Team Defensive Possessions. We would expect, on average, each player to account for 20% of a team's defensive possessions, and Oakland comes really close to achieving this standard. As opposed to the last game where Keith Benson was active at a very high clip, this time he's right on the average mark at 20%. SUU went at Travis Bader quite a bit for the second straight game as the redshirt freshman, along with Benson and Will Hudson, faced the highest number of possessions in raw terms. In what has been a trend between these two teams, Ilija faced an incredible amount of possessions in very limited minutes. But his stop percentage improved drastically here (from 16% to 35%). Kudos.

Now we turn to Southern Utah's score sheet. Unlike Oakland, SUU allowed the offense to score well above what it has allowed on average in conference play.

Oakland's bigs went at SUU's frontcourt from the post and the guards attacked them from the perimeter, so we end up seeing guys like Matt Massey and Kyle Davis accounting for a lot of the team's defensive possessions. Ray Jones, Jr. was also above the average by this standard, no doubt due to the many times he found himself trying to prevent Reggie Hamilton from driving to the hoop in the first half. Here's one play where Hamilton shakes off Jones and scores over Massey's out-stretched arms:

There's nothing too alarming here with the rest of the SUU defensive score sheet, though I do want to showcase the individual lines of Matt Massey and another of SUU's many post options, Matt Hodgson.

Massey had a stop percentage of just 12% in the time he was on the floor, in large part due to Keith Benson getting the best of him. Benson was hitting most of his jumpers and hook shots, and he was going up hard when deep in the post. Massey took the brunt of those makes, and while he hit a few jumpers over Benson himself, he was definitely overmatched on this night. Matt Hodgson, on the other hand, used his length to bother shots. He and Benson shared the court at times during the game, and a few of those forced misses or defensive boards were while guarding Benson. Perhaps most incredibly, Hodgson didn't commit any fouls that sent a player to the stripe - this from a guy whose minutes have often waned due to foul trouble. Hodgson did, however, make a lazy pass that led to this:

And that was the story of the game for Oakland. No matter the adjustments Southern Utah made, they were just too talented and focused for the Thunderbirds to pull an upset.

Reggie The Conquerer

In his first elimination game as a Golden Grizzly, junior Reggie Hamilton did not disappoint. His performance in the first half was simply otherworldly. He scored 21 points during the opening 20 minutes, hitting everything from floaters in the lane to spot-up threes from downtown. He used his defense to create offense, and he got to the free throw line off the dribble-drive. All aspects of his skillset were on display, including his constantly improving ball control (just two turnovers). That run he made in the first half ensured Oakland's lead was safe while SUU was still within striking distance, and his teammates picked up where he left off in the second half. What I enjoyed about Hamilton's performance, more than the numbers, was his demeanor. At one point while he was shooting a free throw, the camera panned in on him and he looked mean, confident, ready to win. It's the "gunner" face:

Hamilton had that face early in the season, especially during the first few road games, but I had thought it was born more out of frustration from his early struggles than anything else. But as I watched him more and as he found his fit as the team's lead guard, it began to look more and more like that gunner mentality. Sure, such play can lead to mistakes from trying too force the issue, but more often than not, it has worked for Hamilton to the benefit of the team. It's a trait that is unique to him on this squad; no one else has exhibited that same kind of "take it to you" attitude. And for Hamilton to put it on display in the tournament, as he has done often in conference play, is a good omen for the Golden Grizzlies as they try to move forward.

An Excuse To Show You Travis Bader's Block

We all know Travis Bader has the smoothest stroke on the team, but apparently he's also been working on his swatting form. At about the midpoint of the second half, Bader had a great block on Ray Jones, Jr. from the weak side. Not only was the block cool, but it lead to a transition three-pointer for Drew Valentine assisted by, you guessed it, Travis Bader!

That was Bader's fifth block of the year, so it's safe to say it's a moment that should be treasured. Bader's passing ability has also been on display in recent weeks, including this quarterfinal game where he had four dishes. He was also the recipient of a pretty sick pass from Larry Wright:

Bader also had an NBA-range three, available in .gif form here. In non-Bader multimedia entries, you can also check out a great play from Larry Wright here. What I liked most about that one was that he was aggressive on the defensive glass and used his quickness in the open court and agility in the paint to get a good look in transition. Finally, a little love for Keith Benson: a stop and pop jumper tailor made for the NBA.

What's Next

Oakland moves on to the semifinals face the winner of tonight's SDSU-IPFW game. In addition to being available on ESPN3.com, the game will air live on Fox Sports Detroit, which is also a win for the local area! That game will be played Monday night at 7:00pm.

Quarterfinal Preview: Oakland vs. Southern Utah

Summit League Tournament Quarterfinal

(1) Oakland vs. (8) Southern Utah

Saturday, March 5, 2011 | 7:00pm EST

Watch: Webstream ($) | Radio: WDFN / WXOU

After achieving a 17-1 record in conference play, Oakland heads to Sioux Falls, South Dakota, for the conference tournament. As the number one seed, OU is the first to play on Saturday evening in a game that pits the team against Southern Utah. These two squads met a week ago in Utah where the Golden Grizzlies came away with an 82-68 victory. Prior to that loss, the Thunderbirds had won three straight games including a big one over IUPUI in Indianapolis. It took a bit of time for Coach Roger Reid's young team to come together, but they finally did during the stretch run. It wasn't enough to propel them any further in the standings, though, so they still enter this game as the eighth and final seed in the tournament. The talk from the Oakland camp all week has been about staying focused, while the Southern Utah contingent has stressed the desire to leave it all on the court. Whatever happens, it looks to be a battle as it's win or go home from here forward.

If you stopped by the blog earlier, hopefully you had a chance to check out the introduction to the Defensive Score Sheet. Though it would have been great to debut that feature earlier in the season, I figured last week's Southern Utah match would be a great starting point given the looming rematch on Saturday evening. If you haven't read the post yet but appreciate data-driven insight, please check it out. I'm going to revisit the defensive ratings from that post here, though with a different focus this time.

From the data in that post, we learned that in last Saturday's match the most active defenders were the big men on both teams. Since Oakland and Southern Utah are well-stocked in the frontcourt, such a statement comes with little surprise. Even though SUU's bigs put up a fight, the data showed that OU's seasoned veterans came away with the more dominating performance on the defensive end. On most nights, that has been the case. Oakland's guards, on the other hand, have rarely been patted on the back for their defense. Though they have made key stops or have had quality nights guarding the opponents, most nights guys like Reggie Hamilton and Travis Bader are more lauded for their contributions on the offensive end. Yet against Southern Utah, the information gleaned from the Defensive Score Sheet shows they were quite influential on the defensive end, too.

As a reminder, the lower the defensive rating, the better. Both of Oakland's starting guards concluded the game with stellar defensive ratings while active on a decent portion of defensive possessions. In raw numbers, Southern Utah went at Travis Bader the third-most of any player (just behind Kito and Will), and the redshirt freshman held his ground, stopping 62% of those scoring opportunities. Bader also had a steal and four defensive rebounds, all of which helped him attain his strong defensive rating for the night. Hamilton did a fine job as well, though it is interesting to note that the opposition did not attempt many shots against him. Still, when they did, he stopped 58% of them while chipping in two steals and one defensive board. SUU's starting guards were scored on more than they stopped their respective opponent, as both Ray Jones, Jr. and Ryan Brimley had stop percentages under 50%. These trends hold up with the reserves as well, though SUU did receive solid defensive contributions from some of its role playing guards in very limited minutes.

Oakland's defense has been superior to that of Summit League opponents throughout the conference season, largely through its incredible post defense. That will always come in handy against a big team like Southern Utah, but if the game from last Saturday tells us anything, it's that Oakland's guards were also able to shut down and score on Southern Utah's guards. If they can match such a feat in the quarterfinal game, the Golden Grizzlies will be difficult to surmount.

Key Match-Up

Will Hudson vs. Kyle Davis

Though SUU's Ramell Taylor had the bigger game last Saturday at the forward spot, Kyle Davis has been the most consistent throughout Summit League Play. Taylor, who dropped 15 points and eight rebounds on Oakland, had only been in double figures three other times all conference season. Davis, on the other hand, has quietly had a strong freshman season for the Thunderbirds. Though he struggled to put the ball in the basket last week against Oakland, he had been on a bit of a roll as he averaged 12.9 points and 6.4 rebounds in February. According to what some of the players told Carter Williams of SUU News, they will be trying to limit the second-chance opportunities Will Hudson usually provides Oakland via the offensive glass in this game. Davis will likely get first dibs at accomplishing that task, though Hudson does not figure to be easy to stop. He attained a double-double in three of Oakland's final four games, and a full 46% of his rebounds were on the offensive end during that stretch. Because of his strong performance against Oakland, Taylor may also be a player to keep an eye on as he contends with Hudson. Many of his made field goals last weekend were of the "falling back jump shot" variety, though he did have four offensive boards.

Southern Utah Player To Watch: Jackson Stevenett

That surge Southern Utah made during the last month of the season coincided with very consistent play from sophomore Jackson Stevenett. The 6-foot-5 sophomore has been playing very well as of late and topped off the regular season with a respectable line of 12 points, seven rebounds, and four assists against Oakland. He also had a great dunk that showcased some of his sneaky athleticism. The Thunderbirds have had very balanced scoring all season, but Stevenett seems like the kind of guy that could have a big scoring night given the many ways he can score. Matt Massey is like that too, especially when his jumper is falling, but he's more prone to foul trouble than the young Jackson.

Oakland Player To Watch: Reggie Hamilton

Oakland is so deep this season that any player could have an outstanding game this weekend, or the team could simply have a balanced effort to pull out a win. So ignoring match-ups or trends for this pick, the guy I am most excited to watch in this game is Reggie Hamilton. Coach Kampe has mentioned many times this season that Hamilton is the guy from last season without a ring (since he was sitting out due to transfer rules), and throughout conference play, we have seen the junior guard play like a guy hungry to win that championship. Fresh off being honored as a First Team All-Summit League selection, Hamilton will play his first elimination game as a Golden Grizzly. I can't wait to see how he responds.

In two meetings this season, Oakland went 2-0 against Southern Utah. On a per-possession basis, the Golden Grizzlies held the Thunderbirds to 0.89 points, a full .16 points lower than their typical offensive output in conference play. Oakland scored 1.09 points per trip, well below their season average of 1.19, a number impacted by last week's game where OU shot just 39% from the field. The teams have met just once in the conference tournament back in the 2002-2003 season. OU was a three seed and lost 55-66 to SUU which had the six seed.

Since Oakland first appeared in a Summit League conference tournament in 2001-02, the number one seed has won the tournament seven times, the two seed once, and the seventh seed once (Oakland in 2004-05). Additionally, the number one seed has made the championship game in every year since at least 1993-94.

Pre-Game Linkage

The Argus Leader out of Sioux Falls is bringing everyone great coverage of the tournament all weekend. They've established a launching page for the tournament which will contain everything written, recorded, or tweeted about the tournament, available here. In addition, Paul Kampe, Oakland beat writer for The Oakland Press, is in Sioux Falls covering all of the action on both the men's and women's side. I would highly encourage keeping tabs of his Twitter feed for immediate news and insights. Dan Fenner of The Oakland Post, OU's student newspaper, is also at the tournament. His Twitter feed can be found here, where he has posted news and insights from the games as well, and the launching page for all of his coverage from the tournament is here. Lots of great coverage should be expected from those outlets throughout the tournament. We are lucky as fans to have them covering the team and tournament!

As for the Gameplan, it'll be game previews for as long as Oakland has games to play. If the team makes it past Tuesday, then a recap and more coverage will follow. And I hope to use all of the great television action over the tournament as fodder to create a stockpile of animated .gifs. Fun times.

Finally, you can always check out the Golden Grizzly Hoops forum where fans have been posting links and thoughts to everything they can find about Oakland and the tournament all week.

Defensive Score Sheet: Oakland vs. Southern Utah

In two meetings this season, Oakland held Southern Utah to an average of just 0.898 points per possession, significantly below the Thunderbirds' conference average of 1.056. Oakland used this advantage to win both games by double digits, even after shooting just 39% in the contest a week ago. The match in Cedar City, then, was marked by a solid defensive effort by both teams. Though we are able to understand team defensive efficiency fairly well from box score data, there has never been a sure-fire way of doing the same for individuals. However, a Defensive Score Sheet, introduced by Dean Oliver in his seminal book Basketball On Paper, can help fill this gap.

The Defensive Score Sheet is basically a way of tabulating what a player does on the defensive end of the court. The recorder marks down each time a player allowed a field goal, forced a miss, committed a foul leading to a miss or make, or forced a turnover. To see which players were most effective in that defensive meeting a week ago, I created one of these sheets after I watched a replay of the game. Assigning credit and blame for defensive stops or lack thereof is a fairly subjective matter, but for the time being let's assume my results are more or less consistent with reality. To see what this looks like, let's go to Will Hudson's line (click to enlarge)

Hudson was very engaged on the defensive end of the court. Southern Utah rarely takes three-pointers (and is in fact last in the nation in percentage of shots taken from beyond the arc) and often goes to its plethora of big men for scoring opportunities. As a result, Hudson faced a lot of scoring possessions - and he did fairly well in denying them points. Now the next stage of the analysis utilized by Oliver is much more complex. It involves a series of detailed calculations that include everything from these raw numbers to items like defensive field goal percentage and rebounding percentage. I first learned about this through the work of David Hess who has been doing this for Kansas all season long. For a brief introduction into some of the terms, you can check out Hess' outline here. I've read the work of Hess and Oliver's chapter on individual defensive ratings many times over, and a lot of it is still over my head. But after working through the calculations a few times, I feel comfortable enough posting the results. Please note any errors are my own.

(I also have to give special thanks to J. Leverenz of the Kentucky blog A Sea Of Blue. He has been doing the Defensive Score Sheets for UK this season and was kind enough to pass along some of his tools and tips for this project. While the tables might appear nice and orderly, a lot of work goes into making these, so many thanks to him for helping make it a bit easier.)

I'm leaving a bit out of the tables for now, but these three columns represent well the areas from which we can draw some conclusions. Thoughts on the Oakland side:

• The lower the defensive rating, the better. Larry Wright comes out with the best defensive rating from this game. He managed to stop 84% of plays against him while he was in the game whether by forcing a miss, a turnover, or grabbing a defensive board. Drew Valentine, who had four steals in this game, also comes out with a stellar defensive rating despite the fact that he only accounted for 10% of team defensive possessions while he was in the game. Either Southern Utah didn't try to attack him, or he did a great job of denying his player a shot attempt (which then wouldn't register on this chart).
• I highlighted Keith Benson's numbers across the board for a reason. While he was in the game, he faced a team high 24% of SUU's scoring attack, and he stopped them 63% of the time. The average we would expect a player to face is 20% (100% divided by five players on defensive), so Kito's mark is likely higher for two reasons: 1) SUU went to its big men a lot, and 2) Kito is an eager help-defender. His stop percentage is likely affected by the subjective nature of this task. For example, Matt Massey hit a few 15-foot jumpers that Kito did not directly contend, but that is because his role in the defense is to guard the basket. So how does one assign blame for such makes? That is why this is such a tricky experience. Still, Benson ends up with a great defensive rating.
• Everyone else on the team posted a solid defensive rating. Will Hudson, despite his great looking raw numbers, ends up with a 91.5 rating. This is still a great rating, but it lags behind his teammates. This is where the math involved in calculating these percentages goes over my head as one would think Hudson's rating would have been better because of his strong raw numbers shown above. I think this results from the fact that Hudson is involved on so many defensive plays, including those where he runs out to contest a shot from another player's man. Also, Hudson took the brunt of SUU's offensive attack early on as he guarded two guys, Kyle Davis and Ramell Taylor, who hit a few fading jumpers that were well contested. This is perhaps where the numbers do the defender a disservice.
• Finally, while Ilija was in the game it appears as if Southern Utah went at him quite a bit - 29% of the time. He had a pretty weak stop percentage and defensive rating as a result.

Now let's turn to Southern Utah's defensive percentages.

• As expected, SUU's starting frontcourt duo, Kyle Davis and Matt Massey, faced the brunt of the offensive attack by Oakland. They had to contend with both Keith Benson and Will Hudson, to mixed results. Davis does a decent job while he's on the court by stopping 55% of defensive scoring possessions. Massey, on the other hand, struggled to get stops. I can also tell you that his figures were hurt by the fact that his fouls lead to four made free throws versus two misses, and he also failed to record a defensive rebound.
• Tyson Koehler held his ground in the paint for short spurts, but when scoring opportunities abounded for the Golden Grizzlies, he largely came up short.
• Jackson Stevenett, an underrated forward, is a bit of a do-everything man for the Thunderbirds. He ends up looking pretty solid by this standard, especially considering the amount of minutes he played.
• Finally, Damon Heuir did a fine job in his limited minutes. He did not allow a single point to be scored against him, stopping two plays and helping on another. He also had a defensive rebound and a forced turnover. Because of this, Heuir is rewarded with a low defensive rating.

The defensive rating charts tell us that this game was very much played in the paint, and the big men were very active on the defensive end as a result. Additionally, the numbers show that Larry Wright did a particularly great job on the defensive end, while SUU received nice defensive contributions from role players in short minutes. It is very likely that the quarterfinal match on Saturday will again feature a lot of scoring opportunities for the big men. Knowing what we know of last weekend's meeting, it will be interesting to monitor which side ends up with the defensive advantage. If time and video permits, I will attempt to track these totals again for the rematch.

20 Tips: A Visualization

Throughout the season our "Weekly Recap" posts were highlighted with a screencap or photo of the tip-off of that week's games. In cases where the tip was obscured or missed, the alternative was simply shot of center court featuring an Oakland player with the ball. Below you will find all of the road game shots in one handy visualization with the score of the games included as well. It's kind of neat to look back on all of the places that the team played this year: four Big Ten arenas, two NBA courts, a few great mid-major venues, nine conference destinations, among others. The games are presented in order, except for the IPFW game, which was placed earlier in the sequence to even out the rows.